Think you are having a hard time? Take a look at Moldova and count your blessings.
This small country wedged between Romania and Ukraine has the lowest living standards in Europe — lower than Albania! — despite possessing some of the finest agricultural land you have ever seen. That there is a Moldova on the map is a result of the clash of Stalinist and fascist rivalries before and during the Second World War, and even of Russian-Romanian and Russian-Ottoman rivalries going back generations. The bitter pill for people who live there is that Moldova has missed out on all — all — the benefits and progress in Europe from the end of the Cold War.
Moldova made significant progress in the early years of independence, with the best conducted elections in the former Soviet Union and landmark land privatization. In some ways, the country was a poster child for desovietization, but then things went wrong, very wrong. In large measure the problem is the shallowness of the country’s political elites, who are provincial in every sense of the term. In part, the country suffers from left-over Cold War rivalries.
It is well-known that Russia exhibits less than full respect for Moldova’s independence and sovereignty, especially over the breakaway region of Transdniestria. Less recognized is that Romania is as bad if not worse than Russia toward its near neighbor. Much of the Romanian leadership regards Moldova as a Romanian province, ripe for reincorporation into an expanded Romanian motherland. Indeed, one of the country’s major political parties is the Greater Romania Party, which openly calls for absorption of Moldova. With entry into NATO and the European Union, Bucharest was supposed to leave these territorial ambitions behind. Fat chance. Both Brussels-based organizations were naive in the extreme about Romanian nationalism.
Moldova has an ethnically mixed population, combining peoples of Romanian, Ukrainian, Russian, Bulgarian and Turkic identities. The one sure thing is that an active attempt to absorb Moldova into Romania would provoke civil war. The resulting violence might not be on a scale with the break up of Yugoslavia, but it could be bad enough, although NATO and the EU are supposed to be around to prevent such things.
The dire state of Moldova’s economy means many of its young people work abroad, the men often in Russia and the women in Europe (many in prostitution). Remittances amount to nearly forty percent of national income. A consequence of having so many younger voters abroad is that elections are disproportionately decided by the older people who remain in country. These people often support the Moldovan Communist Party, which just claimed victory in a general election for the third time.
Now, the Moldovan Communist Party is pretty much Eurosocialist, and certainly nothing like an old-style Communist Party. Still, it has the disciplined techniques and party organization of its name, and that name still has drawing power among voters who are nostalgic for the “good old Soviet days.” Crucially, the Communists are the only major party with cross-over appeal among all the ethnic groups. Most opposition parties offend and scare the non-Romanian population. So, the Communists in Moldova can and do win legitimate elections with international observers.
This time, however, the Communists won a bit too much for credibility. They managed to win exactly the number of legislative seats needed to elect the next president without recourse to other parties, and that is a tad suspicious. This is especially the case as the current president, Vladimir Voronin, is blocked by term limits from a third term but is clearly determined to continue running the country through a hand-picked successor from the Communist Party he founded and heads. Nobody imagines Voronin unwilling to cook the electoral books enough to get the outcome he wanted.
The opposition parties have cried foul, although they have not offered the voters much themselves. The major opposition groups win big in the capital, Chisinau, but are weak in the countryside. In addition, the municipality of Chisinau has been a tribute to the pluralism of democracy but certainly not to competent or coherent governance. The Communists have been at least more competent than the opposition and have made some slight economic progress.
At the same time, Voronin as president has waffled decisively (if that is possible) between a pro-Moscow and pro-Europe orientation for Moldova in seeking a deal on Transdniestria (a topic beyond the scope of this post). Recently, Voronin has been very tight with Russia, seeing Moscow as the only force able actually to deliver a settlement (which is probably right). In doing, so Voronin has deeply offended the pro-Romanian elements of the country’s politics, who are either pro-EU or seek union with Romania.
Hence, the violence on the streets of Chisinau in the aftermath of the elections which put Moldova in the world news for the first time in years. The violence evidently had several components. First, opposition parties were demonstrating against claimed electoral fraud, but lost control of their people. Second, pro-Romanian nationalists who want Moldova to join Romania were out in force, planting Romanian flags on public buildings. Third, there were young people who are simply fed up with living in a country which has had the short end of the stick for as long as anyone can remember. Some of the more extreme violence was likely the anger of young people with nothing to look forward to in their own country and who blame the ruling party and president — not without considerable justification. If I were Moldovan and young, my first ambition would be to find another country; my second would be radical change in the way the country is run.
So, what are the prospects? Poor. There will likely be a recount of some of the voting returns, but expect Voronin to remain in charge, albeit with some compromises to parts of the opposition. Expect also that a European Union bailing water like mad to keep its own economies from capsizing will devote little attention or resources to a Moldova which persists in electing a Communist Party to power. Finally, expect Romania and Russia to continue to treat Moldova like a scrap of meat between two dogs.
Again, think you have problems?