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Asia Security Monitor No. 110, January 24, 2005
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, D.C.

Rogue elements threaten Philippine peace process; 
Sri Lankan terrorists take advantage of tsunami chaos

Editor: Ilan Berman
Associate Editor: Lisa Marie Shanks 

January 16:

A recent attack on a military outpost in Maguindanao may bring the tenuous peace talks between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) to a screeching halt, according to the Manila Bulletin. Unlike previous MILF incursions, this attack, which killed 23 people, is thought to have been carried out by rogue elements within the group. More worrying still, the Agence France Presse reports that the assault signaled a direct connection between the MILF and another organization, the “Abu Sofia” kidnapping/ransom ring. 

Officials on both sides are now working hard to ensure that the Maguindanao operation does not put the possibility of future peace talks in jeopardy. The MILF, however, has been quick to announce that the Maguindanao raid was not sanctioned by the guerrilla organization’s leadership, and pledged to investigate the attack and impose “disciplinary actions” on those involved. In response, Brig. Gen. Alexander Yano, head of the Philippine government’s ceasefire committee, has publicly pledged that “police actions will be directed against the [rogue elements of the] group alone and not the entire MILF.” 


January 19:

The Bush administration has drafted contingency plans to secure Pakistan’s nuclear weapons in the event of an overthrow of the government of General Pervez Musharraf, United Press International reports. The emergency measures, disclosed by Secretary of State nominee Condoleezza Rice during her confirmation hearing before the U.S. Senate this week, are designed to prevent Pakistan’s strategic arsenal from falling into the hands of radical Islamic elements as a result of a coup or governmental takeover. Rice did not reveal specifics of the Administration's plans before the open session of Congress.


January 21:

Are the Tamil Tigers exploiting the Asian tsunami disaster for their own ends? The BBC reports that the radical Sri Lankan separatist group has been recruiting children from relief camps to become soldiers. Since the December disaster, the United Nations’ dedicated child protection agency, UNICEF, has noted at least three cases where young girls were recruited into the rebel group’s cadres. Though the Tigers have denied the allegations, Sri Lanka UNICEF director Ted Chaiban says his organization now has “proof that these children had gone missing from the [relief] camps and are now with the LTTE [Tamil Tigers].” The recruitment of children has long been a bone of contention between UNICEF and the LTTE; the UN estimates that the separatist group currently has some 1,300 children soldiers.

India has accused Pakistan of violating a 2003 ceasefire agreement following reports of shots fired by Pakistani troops along the long-disputed Kashmir border, Agence France Presse reports. The Pakistani government, however, denies the charges, with officials in Islamabad maintaining their commitment to “respecting the ceasefire” with India. According to some analysts, the incident could signal that fragments of the Pakistani Army discontented with government policies are acting autonomously to shatter the unprecedented 15-month ceasefire between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

 

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