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China Reform Monitor No. 572, December 21, 2004 Potential Chinese dominance of North Korea;
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December 18: The dictatorial regime in North Korea may be internally imploding, writes Jason Lim in The Washington Times. He warns that China may take the initiative to trigger an internal coup that would overthrow Kim Jong Il and maneuver the installation of a Beijing-friendly military dictatorship. This would help China establish hegemony over north Asia. Lim observes that China’s ambition to dominate Asia is evident in official projects to purposely misinterpret histories around its borders in order to justify any possible Chinese territorial takeover. One such case is the Northeast Asia Project backed by the state-run China Academy of Social Sciences. With funding in the billions of dollars spanning over 5 years, this faux academic project claims that the most important kingdoms of ancient Korean history were actually Chinese. Chinese control of North Korea's minerals, coal and labor would fuel China's ever-growing economy. North Korea’s ports would serve as bases for military activity. Also, China is concerned that massive numbers of North Korean refugees streaming across the Yalu River would create difficult socioeconomic disruptions. Most significantly, if the two Koreas were to be unified under South Korea's leadership, then a unified Korea that shares America's democratic values would exert a strong socio-cultural influence in large parts of Manchuria, which is home to two million ethnic Koreans, causing a threat to Chinese political control. December 19: China’s proposed anti-secession law has increased concern in Taiwan of a potential military strike by Beijing, reports The Los Angeles Times. Many observers thought relations would be on the mend following the recent victory in Taiwanese legislative elections by the opposition, which has been more conciliatory in reaching out to the Mainland. Instead, Beijing has opted to step up political pressure. "This is an indication China is still very much adamant in trying to stop the independence movement in Taiwan," said Andrew Yang, secretary-general of the Taiwan-based Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies. "By giving it a legal framework, they have enhanced their approach to justify a more coercive means to unify Taiwan." The defeat of President Chen Shui-bian’s Democratic People’s Party in the legislative elections this month sabotaged his ability to push for a more aggressive independence policy. Relations would be further complicated if China succeeds in persuading the European Union to lift its long-standing ban on weapons sales. Experts say China would use any opportunity to upgrade its military capabilities to enhance its position against Taiwan. December 20: Hu Jintao, flush with promises by the European Union that it would begin selling new weapons to China by mid 2005, has escalated a crackdown on pro-democracy dissent that includes greater censorship of the press, reports The Washington Post. The arrest of three leading intellectuals, Yu Jie, Zhang Zhua and Liu Xiaobo, who have stated that government conduct should be held to a higher standard, is part of the attempt to impose stricter discipline within the Communist Party. |
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