Eurasia Security Watch No. 168, February 5, 2008
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
Editor: Jeff Smith

A LARGER SCO?
Eurasia’s premier security bloc may be on the brink of expansion. Since its formation in 2001, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has been made up of six members: Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Over time, several other countries - Mongolia, Iran, India and Pakistan – have participated in the group as official “observers.” Now, however, Russian officials believe the time may be ripe for some membership upgrades: “I think we will soon have to consider the end of the moratorium and the admission of new members,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov has said. The move is a logical one, according to Losyokov, since resolving Central Asia’s problems “will necessitate the involvement of Iran and Pakistan.” (Moscow Interfax, December 27, 2007)

A NEW DAY IN ANKARA
After sweeping parliamentary elections last year and nominating its first candidate to the presidency, Turkey’s Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) has set its sights on rewriting the country’s constitution. The current constitution, which was drafted during military rule, will be replaced by over 140 new articles codifying extra rights for children and Turkey’s marginalized Kurdish minority; increasing independence for the judiciary; and strengthening political parties. Not all the provisions, however, are so benign. While the AKP has left the first four articles – which enshrine secularism in Turkish politics – unchanged, the new constitution will institutionalize the party’s drive to bring the headscarf into the public domain and roll back the power and protections historically granted to the Turkish military. (Istanbul Zaman, January 3, 2008)

DUBAI HUNKERS DOWN
That the United Arab Emirates has managed to avoid the wave of Islamic extremism and terrorism that has plagued its Gulf neighbors in recent years is no accident. The Gulf confederation led by its richest member, Dubai, has by some accounts created “the world’s most comprehensive homeland security and anti-terrorism systems.” Provisions include a 500-mile-long fence atop the Saudi Arabian and Omani borders, and the region’s first comprehensive iris scanning system, which covers all foreigners entering the country on a visa. However, many analysts have begun to caution against complacency: Dubai’s deep ties to the United States and its Westernized culture – replete with alcohol and bikinis – has drawn the ire of fundamentalists in the Gulf, forcing the UAE into ever-tighter scrutiny of its large foreign-worker population. (New York Times, January 8, 2008)

TURKEY’S HUMAN TRAFFICKING PROBLEM
Faced with a 300 percent rise in illegal migration out of the country since 2002, Turkey is looking to amend its penal code to halt the massive outflow of Turks to the West. Fueled by human smugglers, who can earn between $2,500 and $15,000 to shuttle Turks to Europe or North America, the migration wave led to over 45,000 arrests and some 230 deaths last year alone. Government reform efforts will focus on the country’s inadequate legal code, which has resulted in the prosecution of only 15 percent of migrant smugglers caught, as well as the addition of a 70,000-man “front guard” of border security professionals. (Istanbul Zaman, January 15, 2008)

DEMOCRACY TAKES A BEATING IN EURASIA
The global spread of democracy suffered a “notable setback” in 2007, not least in the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia, says Freedom House’s much-publicized annual worldwide survey. Titled “Freedom in Retreat: Is the Tide Turning?” the report grouped Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan with six of the world’s pariah regimes as the “worst of the worst,” and singled out Russia for its pernicious influence in the region, as well as its own democratic backsliding. Regionally, only Kyrgyzstan was rated “partly free,” while the four other “Stans” received the watchdog’s worst, “not free,” label. (eurasianet.org, January 16, 2008)