Eurasia Security Watch No. 172, March 19, 2008
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
Editor: Jeff Smith

OPENING THE PETROLEUM FLOODGATES
Recent momentum driving the progress on the political and military fronts in Iraq seems to have seeped over into the economic realm as well. Although a long-awaited, comprehensive oil law remains stalled in the country’s parliament, Baghdad has begun soliciting bids to develop its massive oil reserves – estimated at 115 billion barrels, the world’s third largest – and Big Oil has been responding. Over 70 multinational corporations have now registered to compete for tenders, including some of the industry’s biggest hitters, like Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and Repsol. And the prospect of tens of billions in investment may well provide an incentive to break the deadlock in Baghdad on the political front: according to Asim Jihad, Iraq’s oil ministry spokesman, winning bidders should be chosen “next month.” (Doha al-Jazeera, February 18, 2008)

A FADING LEGACY IN CENTRAL ASIA
Turkmenbashi, the self-proclaimed “Father of All Turkmen,” once ruled his country with a cult of personality rivaled only by the likes of Kim Jong-il in North Korea. Sapamurat Niyazov’s 21-year reign ended with his death in 2006, but his legacy – Niyazov’s face was plastered on gold-plated statues, the Turkmen currency, and the national vodka – lived on. Today, that may finally be changing. Radio Free Europe has learned that government employees have been ordered to begin removing the late president’s image from public life – in some cases replacing them with the image of his successor, Gubanguly Berdymukhammedov. (eurasianet.org, February 27, 2008)

DISSENSION IN THE ISLAMIST RANKS
In the “war of ideas” being waged between America and its moderate Muslim allies on one hand, and radical Islamist extremists on the other, the forces of progress can claim two rare victories in recent weeks. First, India’s famed Darool Uloom seminary – which spawned the Deobandi ideology that underpins the Taliban’s extreme worldview – denounced terrorism as an “unpardonable sin.” The school, which is influential among madrassas across South Asia, convened a panel of tens of thousands of students and clerics from the region to construct an official denouncement of terrorism – defined as the targeting of any innocent person by any individual, institution, or government.

A day later came the news that Lebanon’s Grand Ayatollah, Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah, a cleric with unrivaled influence in the Shi’ite world, rejected outright the practice of takfir, or declaring other Muslims apostates worthy of death. Reacting to a bombing in Iraq targeting Shi’ite pilgrims, Fadlallah called the practice, which has been popularized by al Qaeda, “the pinnacle of barbarism” and a “fanatical religious edict.” In unusually strong language from what many consider to be Hezbollah’s own spiritual guide, Fadlallah condemned what he deemed “silence in the Islamic world over these criminal operations which annihilate children, women and the elderly, from Afghanistan to Pakistan, to Iraq.” (Reuters, February 26 and 27, 2008)

AL-QAEDA’S PALESTINIAN FOOTHOLD
The Palestinian Authority’s elected president, Mahmoud Abbas, has charged Hamas with “facilitating” the entry of al-Qaeda into the Gaza Strip. The accusation – Abbas also called the two groups “allies” – escalates a war of words between Abbas’ Fatah faction, which runs the West Bank, and Hamas, the Islamist group which last year seized the entirety of Gaza by force.

Hamas has strenuously denied any links between itself and the international terrorist organization, but a number of factors suggest al-Qaeda’s interest and presence there may be growing. A litany of recent statements by al-Qaeda’s top leadership, including bin Laden himself, have included direct and explicit threats towards Israel – a break in tradition for the terrorist group. And analysts are increasingly concerned that al-Qaeda in Iraq’s (AQI) stinging defeats in Mesopotamia may be pushing the group outside Iraq’s borders. (Times of London, February 28, 2008)