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American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC Associate Editor: Artem Agoulnik
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HEZBOLLAH’S SATURATION STRATEGY Israel is facing a fresh challenge from Lebanon’s terrorist powerhouse, Hezbollah. With Iranian support, the Shi’ite militia is said to have commenced a hostile takeover of Palestinian terrorist organizations. Using Iranian and Lebanese funds, Hezbollah has already succeeded in completely co-opting the “Al Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade,” a radical offshoot of Yasser Arafat’s Fatah party within the PLO, and has gained direct control over parts of the Islamist Palestinian Islamic Jihad organization. Simultaneously, the group has strengthened its hold on the West Bank and Gaza Strip through the establishment of independent, autonomous terrorist cells and the creation of an elaborate smuggling network designed to arm its growing cadres. This strategy, carried out under the direction of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Revolutionary Guard, is dramatically expanding Hezbollah’s presence within the crumbling Palestinian Authority. (Tel Aviv Ma’ariv, March 5, 2004) AZERBAIJAN’S REGIONAL OUTREACH Under the direction of its president, Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan continues to exhibit a newfound foreign policy activism. In early March, Aliyev traveled to Kazakhstan’s capital of Astana to cement the growing relationship between the two former Soviet republics. By the end of the visit, Aliyev and his Kazakh counterpart, Nursultan Nazarbayev, had inked cooperation agreements in the spheres of energy, transportation, military and culture – as well as signing a declaration of friendship and strategic partnership. Hailing his meeting with Nazarbayev as a “new milestone” in bilateral relations between their countries, Aliyev defined the agreements as necessary for a “higher level of security and cooperation in the region.” Kazakhstan has not been the only target of Aliyev’s advances, however. Just days after returning from Astana, the Azeri president welcomed Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia's newly-elected leader, to Baku. In a move signaling a thaw in the recent, icy relations between the two Caucasus nations, Aliyev and Saakashvili hammered out a series of political and economic protocols intended to deepen economic and political integration, and to further harmonize Baku and Tbilisi’s approaches to “common problems” such as the threat of “aggressive separatism.” (Radio Free Europe, March 2, 2004; Baku Azerbaijani TV 1, March 4, 2004) DIPLOMACY, IRANIAN-STYLE Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s recent change of heart regarding weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles, and his country’s subsequent cooperation with the United States and England on disarmament, is not sitting well in some corners. Iran, fearful of incriminating disclosures about its own clandestine nuclear weapons program, is rumored to be threatening to launch a guerrilla campaign against Libya. Captured al-Qaeda elements say that extremists from Libya’s banned Combat Islamic Group (GICL) – expelled by Qaddafi in 1997 – have been trained and shielded within Iran by the Islamic Republic’s Revolutionary Guards since September 11th. Tehran has now reportedly stepped up support and training of the group, while simultaneously pledging to restrict the GICL’s activities provided Libya refrains from divulging details of Iran’s WMD efforts. (London Telegraph, February 29, 2004) NEW PLAYERS TAP SAUDI NATURAL GAS In a sign of its cooling relationship with the United States, Saudi Arabia has begun to tighten ties to a variety of new international energy partners. On March 7th, the House of Saud signed a series of landmark multi-decade agreements on natural gas development with four foreign suitors. Under the three bilateral deals, Saudi Arabia’s Aramco has enter into forty-year partnerships with Russia’s state-owned LUKoil conglomerate, China’s Sinopec national energy concern, and a joint consortium comprised of Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol, to explore and subsequently develop the massive natural gas deposits in the Kingdom’s so-called “Empty Quarter” (Rub al-Khali), in the country’s south. Saudi Arabia sits atop the world’s fourth-largest natural gas deposits, with proven reserves estimated at approximately 224 trillion cubic feet. (Associated Press, March 8, 2004) |
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© 2004, American Foreign Policy Council.
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