Between August 17th and 22nd, the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC) sponsored a 10-person delegation to Japan and South Korea led by the Honorable Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives.

The delegation visit came on the eve of Japan’s hotly anticipated national elections, and the subject of imminent political transition was on the mind of everyone in Tokyo. After nearly 60 years in power, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was poised to suffer defeat at the hands of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), led by Yukio Hatoyama. The consensus among Japanese intellectuals ahead of the election was that, barring some sort of unforeseen forcing event, the DPJ would win the poll handily, capitalizing on the widespread discontent generated by the LDP’s lackluster political performance in recent years. (In fact, the DPJ won significantly in Japan’s August 30th election, securing 308 of the 480 seats in the lower house of the Japanese Diet.)

Nevertheless, the delegation heard from numerous Japanese experts, continuity is likely to remain the watchword of Japanese politics and foreign policy, with strong security and political ties with the United States remaining a fixture of Japanese politics.

Delegation members also received insights into Japan’s complex security environment. Most directly, Japan is preoccupied by the threat posed by North Korea - a threat that has become more acute since the DPRK’s series of nuclear and missile tests this past May. Japanese officials felt that the importance of deterrence credibility is key in dealing with North Korea, and emphasize the need for the Obama administration to provide a credible retaliatory guarantee against Pyongyang.   

    
Also of concern is the impending leadership transition in the DPRK, which Japanese officials expect to be a “bumpy” one on account of the relative inexperience of Kim Jong-un, the 26-year-old anointed heir to “Dear Leader” Kim Jong-il.                                                                                                                                                     North Korea preoccupies national security in South Korea to an even greater extent. The key t handling the DPRK, according to officials in Seoul, lies with China. Ninety percent of living materials and half of the food in North Korea currently come from the PRC. If China decides to block bridges or roads, even for a few days, North Korea would find itself in very precarious position. It is therefore important, delegation members heard, for the U.S. to establish a bilateral dialogue with China on North Korea. Such a dialogue would need to address, among other things, Beijing’s fears that unification of the two Koreas would have the ancillary effect of bringing U.S. forces closer to the Chinese mainland.

A range of other issues were discussed by the delegation in Seoul and in Tokyo, among them the state of U.S.-Japanese relations, the health of the U.S.-ROK alliance, the pending U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement, and the strategic challenge to both countries posed by China.

From Seoul, the delegation traveled to the People’s Republic of China for an extended visit that included meetings in Beijing and a visit to the Chinese side of that country’s border with the DPRK. A full report will be featured in the next issue of the Council Review.