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American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
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TEHRAN TAKES CENTER STAGE Amid mounting international scrutiny of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, officials in Washington are expressing fresh worries about the growing missile threat from the Islamic Republic. In his June 25th testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, General John Abizaid, the incoming commander of the United States Central Command, stressed that “Iran has the largest ballistic missile inventory in the Central Command region -- to include long-range weapons of mass destruction and delivery systems capable of reaching deployed U.S. forces in the theater.” Iran, according to Abizaid, “casts a shadow on security and stability in the Gulf region” and “poses a potential threat to neighboring countries.” These concerns are sure to be compounded by news that Iran has successfully tested its medium-range “Shahab-3” missile. Israel's Ha’aretz newspaper (July 4) reports that the latest flight test of the rocket, conducted in late June, is the most successful trial to date, showcasing an expanded range for the “Shahab-3” above and beyond its previously-projected 1,300-kilometer range. A NEW APPROACH TO COUNTERPROLIFERATION In recent months, the Bush administration has begun to speak publicly about the need for a new, more aggressive strategy to counter the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. Now, the White House is implementing plans for an international alliance intended to prevent proliferation by problem states like North Korea and Iran, the Agence France Presse (June 29) reports. At a June 12th conference in Madrid, American officials moved forward with plans for a “voluntary” 11-country alliance whose members would agree to step up their counterproliferation efforts through heightened maritime interdiction, greater cargo shipment inspections, and other measures. The effort – dubbed the Proliferation Security Initiative – already includes the U.S., Japan and Australia, as well as Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and Spain. THE ROAD MAP’S GIFT TO HAMAS The Bush administration’s “Road Map,” the latest international effort to secure a Middle East peace, may have brokered a fragile cease-fire between Israel and the armed Palestinian opposition. But the temporary, three-month truce could be a boon to the missile capabilities of at least one of the parties to the arrangement. According to the July 7th edition of Israel’s influential Maariv daily, intelligence officials in Jerusalem are increasingly concerned that the Hamas terrorist organization is taking advantage of the week-old cease-fire to ramp up manufacturing and production of its “Kassam” short-range rockets. On the Israeli side, meanwhile, the lull in hostilities has caused the Israeli Defense Forces to scale back their efforts to root out and eliminate Palestinian terror cells. BPI ON THE HORIZON? Jerusalem and Washington are intensifying talks concerning an innovative ballistic missile interception concept. Middle East Newsline (June 27) reports that, following years of delay – and after substantial adjustments to program costs and objectives – the U.S. and Israel are finally moving closer to work on a project called Boost Phase Intercept (BPI). The program, as outlined by Israel, would include airborne relay sensors to detect – and unmanned aerial vehicles equipped with rockets to destroy – launching ballistic missiles during their slow ascent stage. A JITTERY NEW DELHI LOOKS NORTH Despite a recent thaw in their relations, India is expressing concern over China’s rapid military modernization. According to the June 26th Times of India, officials in New Delhi are increasingly apprehensive that the PRC’s expansion of its armed forces and missile capabilities could up-end the regional strategic balance in Asia. As one army officer explains, India’s strategy “revolves around maintaining a strategic balance on both fronts... ensuring ‘credible deterrence’ against Pakistan and ‘affordable deterrence’ against China.” But the PRC’s massive military modernization program, and in particular its focus on advanced long-range missiles, is increasingly calling into question the traditional status quo between Beijing and New Delhi. “Every major Indian city is within the reach of Chinese missiles and this capability is being further augmented to include submarine-launched ballistic missiles,” the Indian foreign ministry revealed in a recent statement. In response, India has stepped up its own ballistic missile efforts, and now plans to test its “China-specific,” long-range “Agni-III” by late 2003 or early 2004, the paper reports. |
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