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American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
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ANOTHER STEP BACK FOR SPACE-BASED DEFENSE Budgetary cuts and political considerations have profoundly chilled plans for the development of a space-based kinetic energy interceptor, according to the November 13th Aerospace Daily. The trade newsletter reports that defense allocations for fiscal year 2004 recently approved by the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives have trimmed spending for the Pentagon’s Kinetic Energy Interceptor project by more than half of the $301 million requested, to $119 million. The program’s space-based component, designed for research and concept work on an exo-atmospheric interceptor missile, suffered corresponding budgetary decreases, receiving only $14 million for the coming year. The Missile Defense Agency, however, has decided to not even spend that much, deferring any space-based interceptor work until 2005 at the earliest. NEW INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT MAPS GLOBAL MISSILE ADVANCES The Central Intelligence Agency’s most recent report to Congress, meanwhile, has painted an alarming picture of growing ballistic missile capabilities among American adversaries. The intelligence study, which covers international ballistic missile and WMD developments from January to June 2003, lists Iran, North Korea, Libya, and Syria as primary states of missile concern. Iran, the report states, has continued to receive assistance in missile “equipment, technology, and expertise” from China, North Korea and Russia. North Korea, meanwhile, has moved forward considerably in its long-range ballistic missile capabilities, and its “multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2—capable of reaching parts of the United States with a nuclear weapon-sized payload—may be ready for flight-testing.” With regard to Syria, the report cites evidence that Damascus is “developing longer-range missile programs such as a Scud D and possibly other variants with assistance from North Korea and Iran.” The greatest strides in ballistic missile development during the first half of 2003, however, were made by Tripoli. “Libya continued to depend on foreign assistance—particularly from Serbian, Indian, Iranian, North Korean, and Chinese entities—for its ballistic missile development programs,” the report states. “Libya’s capability therefore may not still be limited to its Soviet-origin Scud-B missiles.” And, according to the CIA study, “with continued foreign assistance, Libya will likely achieve an MRBM capability—a long-desired goal—probably through direct purchase from North Korea or Iran.” MIXED REVIEWS FOR THE PATRIOT A new study by the U.S. Army has provided a frank assessment of the Patriot anti-missile system’s performance during Operation Iraqi Freedom. The in-depth report, covered by Space News (November 10), cites a total of nine intercepts by the Patriot during the Gulf conflict, including successful destruction of Iraqi “Ababil-100,” “Al Samoud,” and CSSC-3 short-range missiles. However, the Patriot’s sensitive sensors responded poorly to electronic “clutter” like ground radar signals, radar-jamming planes and battlefield communications systems. System mobility was also an issue -- the theater missile defense units experienced difficulty in traversing desert terrain and were clearly “not originally designed to maneuver cross country as part of a combined arms team,” the report concludes. KUWAIT SEEKS NEW DEFENSES Kuwait has stepped up its search for supplemental missile and air defenses. The November 17th Middle East Newsline reports that officials in Kuwait City have opened discussions regarding the acquisition of a $1 billion sea- and ground-based air-defense system with three unidentified defense contractors. The new system will supplement the country’s existing air defense network, which consists of units of the U.S. PAC-2 and HAWK, as well as the Egyptian “Al Amoun.” However, no decision regarding the procurement is expected this year, Kuwaiti officials have said. ADVANCED TESTING AHEAD FOR THE ARROW Against the backdrop of mounting Middle East missile threats, Israeli and American officials have begun to plan more sophisticated tests for the Arrow. Flight International (November 11) reports that advanced trials of the jointly-developed theater missile defense system will commence in mid-2004, with plans already on the table for the Arrow to be fielded against both “Scud C” and “Scud D” short-range missiles at the U.S. Navy test range in Point Magu, California. |
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© 2003, American Foreign Policy Council.
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