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American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
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NORTH KOREA’S NEW MISSILES THREATEN THE U.S. The DPRK is now deploying a new missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, Reuters (August 3) reports. According to the news agency, Pyongyang is currently in the process of fielding land- and sea-based variants of its advanced “Taepo Dong-2” ICBM. Both the land-based version, which has an estimated range of 4,000 kilometers, and its sea-based counterpart, with a range of at least 2,500 kilometers, are said to be based on the Soviet “R-27” submarine-launched ballistic missile, which North Korea is suspected of having acquired from Russia during the 1990s. In particular, the DPRK appears to be developing a submarine-launched ballistic missile capability – a development that would give dramatically greater reach and mobility to its strategic arsenal. To date, only the U.S., Russia, Britain, France and China are known to have submarine-launched nuclear weapons. Should Pyongyang join their ranks, it would “fundamentally alter the missile threat posed by the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) and could finally provide its leadership with something that it has long sought to obtain -- the ability to directly threaten the continental U.S.,” Jane’s Defense Weekly warns in its August 4th issue. FEAR AND LOATHING IN MOSCOW The recent agreement between the United States and Denmark regarding the modernization of the Thule radar base on the Danish colony of Greenland is fanning Russian fears of the Bush administration’s missile defense plans. Despite American assurances, the “deployment geography” of the base suggests a potential “to cause damage to Russian security,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried by Vremya Novostey on August 10th. It “is an alarming signal, considering the fact that the American side is viewing the opportunity of deployment of anti-missile defense components in Eastern Europe close to the Russian borders,” and Russia reserves the right “to take all the necessary measures to support its own safety,” the statement said. CRUISE MISSILE DEFENSE TAKES SHAPE Officially, Canada may still be contemplating whether to sign on to the Bush administration’s missile defense program. Cooperation between Washington and Ottawa is quietly moving forward on another front, however. Three years after U.S. and Canadian officials began work on a joint system designed to track and intercept cruise missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles and low-flying aircraft, Inside the Air Force (August 13) reports that such a defense capability is beginning to emerge. According to the defense publication, the two countries are now working on the “Area Cruise Missile Defense Capability,” or ACMD, as a supplement to existing air defenses cooperatively administered under the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). U.S. and Canadian officials say the program, now in its advanced concept demonstration phase, is designed to monitor and neutralize low-flying threats, like cruise missiles, which existing NORAD systems cannot detect. The system, an amalgam of existing sensors and radars, is designed to link to U.S. (and in the future possibly Canadian) missile defenses, which will provide interception capability. The technology dovetails with a deal struck by U.S. and Canadian officials in recent weeks allowing U.S. missile defense assets to access NORAD early-warning capabilities. MIDDLE EAST MISSILE RACE HEATS UP In the wake of Israel’s July 29th test of its Arrow theater missile defense system, Iran has conducted a test of its own. In an August 11th trial reported by Israel’s Ha’aretz newspaper, the Islamic Republic successfully fired an extended-range version of its “Shahab-3” medium range missile. The move followed announcements by Iranian officials of plans to enhance the reach and capability of their missiles as part of a “deterrent nuclear defence” program now underway in the Islamic Republic. Tehran has made no secret of the reasons for this new program. “The Israelis are trying hard to improve the capacity of their missiles, and we are also trying to improve the Shahab-3 in a short time,” the Iran Press Service (August 7) reports Iran’s Defense Minister, Ali Shamkhani, as saying. Israel is already formulating its response. With an eye on the evolving Iranian missile threat, officials in Jerusalem have announced plans for a follow-on test of the Arrow. The upcoming trial will focus on boosting the anti-missile interceptor’s speed and accuracy to effectively neutralize threats like the “Shahab-3.” “We will put the Arrow through another live run in the near future, pushing the envelope on all its capabilities,” a senior Israeli defense official told Reuters on August 12th. |
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