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American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
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MISSILE DEFENSE MOVES EAST The Bush administration’s missile defense plans could take on a dramatic new dimension in the near future as part of the global War on Terror. Agence France Presse (September 5) reports that the Pentagon is beginning to explore new basing options for boost-phase defense, a development that experts say could lead to the creation of permanent basing sites in places like Afghanistan, Iraq or the Caspian Sea. Current boost phase research and development, according to Pentagon officials, is intended to create forward-deployed “mobile, surface-based, multi-use interceptor” that would enable the United States to shoot down ballistic missiles early in flight, while they are still over enemy territory. The new attention being given to boost-phase basing appears to have everything to do with Iran. Policymakers in Washington have expressed growing concern over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and ballistic missile advances in recent months, and now seem to have begun actively planning strategic responses. In a recent report, the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. government’s fiscal watchdog, outlined that “[t]wo to four BPI sites would be necessary to fully defend against liquid-fuel ICBMs launched from possible Iranian locations.” Such a capability would require bases in Central Asia and the Persian Gulf, as well as possible floating launch platforms in the Caspian. SPACE-BASED SENSORS TAKE CENTER STAGE A new Pentagon study has emphasized the importance of space-based sensors to U.S. missile defense plans, the September 10th edition of Inside the Air Force reports. According to the brief, prepared by a task force assembled by the Pentagon’s Defense Science Board (DSB) at the request of Congress, “the Space-Based Radar has the potential for substantial contributions to ballistic missile defense, providing capabilities and access that are difficult to achieve with surface-based sensors.” In its findings, the DSB white paper concluded that space-based surveillance and tracking could play a critical role in several distinct duties: pre-launch monitoring; the early detection of ballistic missile launches; tracking of the missile’s trajectory, and; discrimination between warheads and decoys that might be deployed by the incoming missile. IRAN PLANS NEW “SHAHAB” TEST Fresh off a successful August 11th trial, Iran appears to be readying another test of its advanced “Shahab-3” medium-range missile. The Associated Press (September 7) reports Iran’s Defense Minister, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, has announced that his forces stand ready for a follow-on, public launch of an upgraded version of the missile “in the presence of observers.” The announcement comes amid an escalating missile race with Israel, which failed in its second test of the advanced Arrow anti-missile interceptor in late August. INDIA GOES WOBBLY... A top Indian national security official has spoken out against two of the Bush administration’s top strategic initiatives. The Hindu (September 6) reports that in an August 30th address in New Delhi, Indian Deputy National Security Advisor Satish Chandra publicly warned that American missile defense efforts were a sure sign that “the strategic thinking in the U.S. is undergoing a paradigm shift whereby it could consider resorting to the use of nuclear weapons in a pre-emptive mode.” The Indian official also questioned the legality of efforts like the Proliferation Security Initiative, the premier U.S. program to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction. According to Chandra, India believes “concerted action through universally negotiated programmes and systems” to be preferable to the “ad hoc, piecemeal measures” now being undertaken by the White House. The statements constitute the first formal policy declarations on missile defense and counterproliferation of the new ruling Congress Party government in New Delhi since it took power in April. India’s previous government, headed by Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, had been a staunch supporter of American missile defense and counterproliferation initiatives. ...AS JAPAN STANDS FIRM Cooperation with another Asian ally, by contrast, is moving forward steadily. The September 8th edition of Aerospace and Defense reports that the Japanese government is interested in purchasing 20 units of the advanced PAC-3 from the United States. The proposed deal, which could be worth up to $79 million, is designed to enhance the island nation’s domestic missile defense capabilities. Washington and Tokyo’s evolving collaboration does not stop there, however. According to the Associated Press (September 10), the Pentagon is currently studying ways of expanding cooperation on sea-based defenses with Japan. A joint flight test of a sea-based interceptor is already slated for the second half of 2005, with a more complex trial – utilizing a mock target – to be held the following year. But Washington hopes to nudge Japan into lowering its existing restrictions to facilitate defense exports and increase interoperability with third nations as part of the Bush administration’s planned missile shield for Asia. |
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