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American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
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IRAN’S OMINOUS MISSILE ADVANCES... As international pressure continues to mount on Tehran for its nuclear ambitions, new revelations have focused international attention on another element of Iran’s strategic arsenal. On December 2nd, an Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), disclosed that the Islamic Republic is hard at work on a new medium-range ballistic missile, the “Ghadr 100.” Experts like Uzi Rubin, the former director of Israel’s Arrow Program, believe that the propulsion system, range, and re-entry vehicle of the “Ghadr-100” are similar to that of the advanced “Shahab-4” – a missile the Iranian regime publicly pledged in November of 2003 not to build. Specific alterations in the missile’s nosecone allow it to hold larger warheads, including nuclear devices, Rubin tells Jane’s Defence Weekly in an interview published on December 6th. What’s more, according to the Israeli specialist, the alterations are the work of “seasoned missile engineers,” likely from the Russian Federation. ...AND THE MOUNTING NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR THREAT A new report from the UN’s nuclear watchdog has assessed that North Korea may be in possession of as many as six nuclear warheads, the New York Times (December 7) reports. The brief, released in early December by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), contradicts U.S. intelligence estimates that Pyongyang can only produce two or three warheads. In an interview with the Times, IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei noted that the 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods – which the Stalinist regime removed from storage after expelling IAEA inspectors nearly two years ago – have since been converted to weapons-grade nuclear material. MOSCOW MARKETS DEFENSES IN ASIA Russia is gearing up for a new round of arms diplomacy in Southeast Asia, Interfax-AVN (November 22) reports. According to the Russian news agency, Russia’s state arms export giant, Rosoboronexport, is expected to soon begin marketing an array of cutting-edge weapons systems to Indonesia and other countries in the region. Among the technologies said to be on the block by the Russian arms broker – a broad range of air and missile defense systems, from the portable “Igla” to the sophisticated S-300VM Antei-2500 air and missile defense complex. JAPAN RETHINKS STRATEGIC POSTURE Amid mounting regional threats in Asia, Japan could be embarking upon a fundamental reorientation of its national security policy. Geostrategy Direct reports in its December 14th issue that Tokyo has begun to consider the creation of an indigenous arsenal of long-range missiles capable of striking foreign targets that constitute a threat to Japan. The proposal – which would mark a radical departure from the country’s current minimalist defense policy, but which the government of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi believes to be consistent with its current “self defense” constitution – was floated in a draft report on future defense capabilities recently formulated by the Japanese government, according to the intelligence newsletter. A SHIFTING BALANCE OF POWER IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT According to the Washington Times (December 3), China’s new Type 094 ballistic missile submarine was recently spotted off the coast of Bohai Bay, some 250 miles northwest of Beijing. Though the advanced submarine still is believed to be a year or two away from being operational, the discovery has sent a shudder through the American intelligence community, which in May estimated the Type 094’s deployment date at the year 2010. What’s more, the new PRC sub is expected to be equipped with 16 JL-2 missiles – each with a projected range of 7,500 miles and multiple warhead capability. Once deployed, this combination is likely to decisively alter the U.S. strategic calculus in the Taiwan Strait, analysts say. Richard Fisher, Vice President of the Washington-based International Assessment and Strategy Center, tells the Times that the unexpected pace of China’s naval progress is an “astounding development” that will, in the near future, provide China with a definite second-strike nuclear attack capability and is likely to deter the United States from aiding Taiwan in the event of an attack from the mainland. |
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