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American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
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AN OMINOUS ESCALATION IN EAST ASIA A new North Korean missile test has revived global worries over Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities. Japanese news sources estimate that the short-range rocket, which was fired from North Korea’s east coast over the Sea of Japan on May 1st, has a range of 60 miles. Asian governments have so far played down the ramifications of the North Korean missile test. But the launch – which follows Pyongyang’s abrupt April decision to shut down its main nuclear reactor at Yongbyon in what Western officials fear could be a prelude to the extraction of fissile material for additional atomic weapons – is not the only sign of escalatory behavior on the Korean Peninsula. Reuters (May 3) reports that U.S. intelligence agencies have detected the movement of heavy equipment within the Stalinist state, suggesting the regime of “Dear Leader” Kim Jong-il could be preparing to carry out an underground atomic test. THE FRUITS OF CHINA’S MILITARY MODERNIZATION Within the next ten years, China will field new, sophisticated ballistic missiles as part of a military build-up that increasingly threatens to alter the correlation of forces in Asia, a top American intelligence official has divulged. “Strategic force modernization is a continuing priority, and China will likely field three new strategic missiles – more mobile, survivable and capable – within a decade,” David Gordon, chairman of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency’s National Intelligence Council (NIC), told members of the presidentially-appointed Defense Base Realignment and Closure Commission on May 3rd. The projected new deployments, Gordon said in his statement, which was carried by Reuters on May 4th, are the product of a massive, multi-year military modernization effort – one that is already “tilting the balance of power in the Taiwan Straits and improving China’s capabilities to threaten U.S. forces in the region.” KEEPING THEL OFF THE BATTLEFIELD Despite promising test results, the Pentagon has so far delayed the deployment of the Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL) to Iraq. Reuters (May 4) reports that the U.S. Army has so far rejected proposals for a deployment of the versatile directed energy system – which has successfully been used to intercept incoming rockets and artillery under controlled conditions at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico – as part of the U.S.-led Coalition presence in the former Ba’athist state, notwithstanding frequent mortar and artillery attacks on Coalition forces by insurgents. The delay, Pentagon officials say, stems from lingering concerns over logistics and safety associated with the complex laser. But representatives of the Northrop Grumman Corporation, the THEL’s builder, maintain that such worries could be easily alleviated, and that the U.S. armed forces simply have to “decide how they want to use this capability.” RUSSIA’S EVOLVING RESPONSE TO MISSILE DEFENSE New details are emerging regarding Russia’s efforts to develop missiles capable of defeating American defenses. Col. Gen. Varfolomey Korobushin, the first vice president of Russia’s Academy of Military Sciences, recently confirmed Moscow’s development of a low-trajectory ICBM designed to bypass U.S. missile defenses, Geostrategy-Direct (week of May 2) reports. According to the intelligence newsletter, U.S. officials have taken note of the fact that the Russian military has already carried out several test flights of missiles capable of long-duration variable flat trajectories. Russia’s strategic modernization plans do not stop there, however. According to Korobushin, officials in Moscow, concerned about maintaining a credible nuclear deterrent force in the face of expanding U.S. missile defense capabilities, are working to upgrade Russia’s system of early-warning radars, and to deploy more capable sea-based nuclear-armed cruise missiles. A MISSILE DEFENSE RESHUFFLE IN TAIPEI Taiwan’s government is planning the development of long-range missiles as part of efforts to boost its defensive potential, the island nation’s National Defense Minister, Lee Jye, has revealed. In comments before the Legislative Yuan, Lee revealed that Taiwan’s newly-formed Missile Defense Command will be temporarily disbanded while the country develops “strategic weapons.” Ultimately, however, the Command will be reestablished under a new structure, incorporating both offensive and defensive capabilities, the Taipei Times (May 3) reports Lee telling Taiwanese lawmakers. |
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