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American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
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RIPPLES FROM NORTH KOREA'S
MISSILE TESTS... North Korea has sent shockwaves through the international community by firing an unprecedented salvo of ballistic missiles. On July 4th, flouting international criticism, the DPRK carried out a total of seven missile launches - including one of its 6,000 kilometer "Taepo Dong 2" intercontinental ballistic missile, which experts believe is capable of reaching the continental United States. CNN (July 5) reports that all seven missiles fell into the Sea of Japan, and the "Taepo Dong 2" trial was an apparent failure, with the ICBM landing some 200 miles west of Japan after just 40 seconds of flight. The international response to North Korea's missile tests has been immediate. U.S. officials have condemned the DPRK's "provocative behavior," and urged a resumption of the stalled six-party talks over the regime's nuclear program. North Korea's missile tests have also reinvigorated political support for the Bush administration's missile defense efforts. A number of top Congressional leaders - including Senator George Allen (R-VA), a presumptive presidential candidate in the 2008 elections - have revived calls for the continued deployment of "an effective missile defense system," the Washington Times (July 6) reports. Japan, meanwhile, is taking a different tack. The Asahi Shimbun (July 5) reports that Tokyo has leveled a series of nine sanctions-including a six month disruption of direct transportation between Japan and the DPRK-in retaliation for the missile tests, and is now seeking additional punitive measures against North Korea via the United Nations Security Council (albeit with little success so far). In a dramatic hardening of their country's defense posture, policymakers in Tokyo have also opened a debate about the constitutionality of preemptive military action against North Korean military bases, should the need arise. "If we accept that there is no other option to prevent an attack ... there is the view that attacking the launch base of the guided missiles is within the constitutional right of self-defense. We need to deepen discussion," the Associated Press (July 10) cites Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Shinzo Abe, as saying. ...AS PYONGYANG'S STRATEGIC PARTNER LOOKS ON Kim Jong-il's provocative missile moves are also being watched closely from another corner. South Korea's official Yonhap news agency (July 1) reports that ten senior missile engineers affiliated with Iran's clerical army, the Pasdaran, recently visited the DPRK to participate in the preparations for the North's "Taepo Dong 2" launch. Their apparent goal? An on-site review of Chinese-origin ballistic missile technologies for possible procurement by the Islamic Republic. But the delegation visit could also signal something more; according to sources cited by Yonhap, Tehran and Pyongyang also may be planning a joint project to develop new liquid fuels for their respective ballistic missile arsenals. TAIWAN TAKES ON THE MAINLAND Amid the furor over North Korea, another Asian nation is also planning to carry out missile tests. Citing a local television news network, Reuters (July 6) reports that Taiwan is preparing to test fire an indigenously-developed missile capable of hitting the PRC. Once operational, the 600-kilometer range "Hsiung Feng III" will put areas of China's coastline opposite the island nation within striking distance - a major development in the tense, multi-year missile stand-off along the Taiwan Strait. IRAN'S BALLISTIC MISSILE STRATEGY The Islamic Republic of Iran is making major investments in its ballistic missile program - as well as in a nascent space capability - in an effort to deter the United States and acquire the ability project power globally, according to Israel's top missile defense expert. "The Iranians are realists," writes Uzi Rubin, the founder of Israel's Missile Defense Organization, in the June 20th edition of the Jerusalem Issue Brief. "Their stated policy is to deter the U.S. and its allies by threatening a war that will cause such damage at such a price that this option will become unacceptable. With this perspective, they are investing very smartly in deterrence enhancers and force multipliers instead of replacing obsolete equipment." In the long run, however, Iranian efforts are focused on the ability "to project power beyond Iran, over Europe and over the United States." And once its space program is mature, Rubin warns, "Iran is bound to project power on a global scale." |
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