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Missile Defense Briefing Report No. 236, January 4, 2008
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
Editor: Ilan Berman

PROGRESS IN EUROPE...
Agence France Presse (January 2) reports that the Czech Republic is eager to finalize missile defense discussions with Washington early this year. According to the news agency, Czech Prime Minister Mrek Topolanek has announced his intention to conclude negotiations with the Bush administration over his country's role as a basing site for anti-missile radars in coming weeks, and to visit Washington next month to that end. Topolanek's timing has everything to do with the U.S. political season. "At this stage there is no threat that the radar question will be postponed to a new American administration," the Czech premier has confirmed. "We want to deal with this during this administrative term."

...AND AMBIVALENCE IN ASIA
U.S. plans for missile defense cooperation in other quarters, however, are not faring as well. South Korea, long a contender for a role in the Bush administration's envisioned missile defense shield for Asia, has signaled publicly that it will not take part in the project, for financial reasons. "To participate (in the U.S. missile defense shield), we have to purchase state-of-the-art early warning `systems' and missile interceptors that require a big budget," the Korea Times (January 3) reports Defense Minister Kim Jang-soo as explaining to reporters in Seoul.

None of this means that South Korea is not enhancing its anti-missile capabilities, however. "Our military is building a low-altitude missile intercept shield," the new South Korean defense chief has said. That system reportedly includes units of the PAC-2 theater missile defense system and ship-based defenses built around the Standard Missile-2 (SM-2). The lower-tier shield is expected to reach initial operational capability by the end of the decade.

ISRAEL FOCUSES ON SHORT-RANGE THREATS
As part of its ongoing efforts to grapple with growing asymmetric threats from groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas, the Israeli government has earmarked more than $200 million for the development of an advanced rocket defense system, the Agence France Presse (December 24) reports. Under current Defense Ministry plans, the system, dubbed "Iron Dome," will be developed over the next five years by the Israeli defense firm Rafael. Once operational, it is expected to provide "multi-layered" defense against rocket fire emanating from Gaza and Lebanon, as well as some longer-range missile threats from countries such as Syria and Iran.

ARMING IRAN?
Iranian officials claim that, as part of their country’s deepening defense ties with Moscow, the Islamic Republic is poised to receive units of Russia’s advanced S-300 air and missile defense system. “The S-300 air defense system will be delivered to Iran on the basis of a contract signed with Russia in the past," Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar announced in a televised address on December 26th, the Associated Press reported a day later. Russian officials, however, are denying the claim. “The issue of supplying Iran with S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems, raised by mass media, is not on the agenda, is not being considered and is not being discussed with the Iranian side at the moment," Reuters (December 28) reports Russia's Federal Military and Technical Cooperation Service as saying in an official statement.

RUSSIA’S RESPONSE TO U.S. MISSILE DEFENSE PLANS
Washington and Moscow may still be holding consultations over the Bush administration’s plans for a European missile defense basing site, but the Russian military is already making plans to counter the envisioned U.S. deployment. According to Russian officials, a new effort by the Kremlin to develop military forces in space is connected to American missile defense plans. "The plans to develop the Space Forces were elaborated to counter any new threats if they emerge," Interfax-AVN (December 14) reports Russian Space Forces Commander Col. Gen. Vladimir Popovkin as telling reporters. The plans, Popovkin makes clear, are proceeding because "[c]urrently we do not see any changes (in the U.S. position on missile defense)."