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MISSILE DEFENSE BRIEFING REPORT NO. 5, May 18, 2001
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, D.C.

Editors: J. Michael Waller and Ilan Berman



U.S. VOWS TO FORGE AHEAD…

The State Department has affirmed that the U.S. will deploy a missile defense system irrespective of world opinion, but that it is trying to help other countries understand the nature and response to the missile threat, the Associated Press reports. On May 15th, State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher stated publicly that "the secretary [of state] has made clear, the president has made clear that we intend to proceed with defense, and defense is part of our... strategic framework.." The current consultations on missile defense by U.S. officials with countries around the world are therefore not a prerequisite to progress on missile defense, but rather are intended to help other countries "understand, first of all, our strategic thinking" and allow the United States to "hear from them on the various factors that need to be considered as we proceed to look for various areas of cooperation."


…WHILE CONSULTATIONS YEILD MIXED RESULTS…

With U.S. administration envoys set to visit still more European and Asian countries to consult on missile defense, the track record so far is decidedly mixed. Despite Seoul's predisposition to U.S. overtures, South Korean officials expressed concerns about the possible effect of a missile defense initiative on the region's stability, the BBC reported on May 10th. The reaction from the Netherlands to the comprehensive approach adopted by the Bush team, however, was positive, but responses from other countries were cooler. Despite softened rhetoric, the Russian leadership is "not convinced" about the U.S. position on missile defense, the BBC reported on May 11th. According to a government spokesman, the consultations have left "more questions than answers," and "The United States has been unable to convince us how to solve the problems of international security without damaging disarmament agreements."

Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly's visit to Beijing, reported in the Associated Press on May 15th, has fared even worse. In the wake of the meeting, the foreign ministry in Beijing released another statement of opposition to American proposals, and has warned that "China will not just wait idly and see its national interests being undermined." China has furthermore reversed its policy toward U.S. theater missile defense. The Washington Post reported on May 16th that Beijing has announced that the PRC is "more opposed" to U.S. theater missile defenses than strategic defenses, as they would undermine the "balance" in Asia. In a related item, rumors of a secret deal that would allow China to overwhelm American missile defenses have begun to circulate. A brief, unsourced story in the May 15th Times of London says that a deal might be in the works to reassure China on the issue of U.S. missile defense. According to the report, a U.S. State Department official in Beijing "is expected to put forward a deal that would allow China slightly more long-range missiles than America's planned shield could intercept." There has been no U.S. response to the report.


…PYONGYANG THREATENS SEOUL OVER MISSILE DEFENSE…

Should South Korea cooperate with the U.S. missile defense initiative, it will be doomed to "ruin and death," the North Korean government says. In an official commentary reported by the Associated Press (May 13th), the state-controlled Rodong Sinmun paper has warned that "If the South Korean authorities get involved in the missile defense they will get nothing but ruin and death."


…AND PAKISTAN BLASTS U.S. PLAN

Pakistani military strongman Parvez Musharraf lashed out at the United States' missile defense plan in his regime's first public stance on the issue. The U.S. system, General Musharraf said during a banquet for Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji, "would undermine international efforts aimed at arms control and disarmament," the Indian internet news site Rediff.com reported on May 13th. In Musharraf's words, "We share the international concern at the development and deployment of ballistic missile defence which could jeopardize strategic stability, trigger a new arms race and undermine international efforts aimed at arms control and disarmament." Musharraf's comments were clearly timed to coincide with Zhu's visit to Islamabad and with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's arrival in New Delhi.


Research provided by GlobalSecurityNews


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