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American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
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POSITIVE MOVEMENT IN MOSCOW Is Russia changing course on missile defense? After years of intense international opposition, the Kremlin seems to be reconsidering its stance on American and European missile defense efforts. Speaking to journalists on September 16th, Col. Gen. Yury Baluyevsky, the first Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff, revealed that Moscow has already begun actively cooperating with European capitals on the development of a European ABM system. Russia has initiated regular consultations with its EU partners to explore "military-technical cooperation" based on "joint" assessments of emerging ballistic missile dangers, Itar-TASS cites Baluyevsky as saying. This about-face doesn't seem to be limited to cooperation with Europe - Moscow also appears to be drifting into alignment with the Bush administration's missile defense plans. In subsequent comments to Itar-TASS and Interfax-AVN on September 18th, Baluyevsky confirmed that "Russia is ready to cooperate with the United States in the field of missile defense on an equal basis." ISRAEL BRACES FOR IRAQ ATTACK... Israel's military is continuing to prepare for the possible fallout from American military action against Iraq. The September 12th issue of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the country's air defense system has been bolstered through the deployment of three additional Patriot anti-missile batteries. The new units, intended to guard against potential missile strikes from Baghdad, have been deployed near Haifa in northern Israel, close to the central Israeli town of Hadera, and near Eilat in the country's south. The supplemental missile defenses are being rolled out in tandem with major homeland defense exercises, according to Ha'aretz. The September 14th edition of the Israeli daily reports that Israel's Home Front Command and local municipal officials recently held disaster drills in Tel Aviv and the surrounding suburbs simulating a possible missile and chemical weapon attack from Saddam Hussein's regime. ...AS BAGHDAD EXPANDS MISSILE RANGE... Iraq, meanwhile, appears to be hard at work improving its arsenal of ballistic missiles. Assessing the threat posed by Iraqi missiles and weapons of mass destruction, a Pentagon official told reporters on September 13th that Saddam Hussein's regime is actively attempting to expand the range of its ballistic missile arsenal to enable them to carry weapons of mass destruction to all of Turkey and much of the Persian Gulf region. The assessment, reported by Reuters, stressed that "with outside assistance they could fly a domestically-developed, medium-range ballistic missile something out to 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) by the middle of the decade." ...AND TERRORIST MISSILE THREAT MOUNTS After months of development, the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas has begun deployment of its "Kassam-3" missile, Middle East Newsline (September 15) reports. The 12-kilometer range rocket, said to have been developed in conjunction with Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority, was used in attacks against southern Israel for the first time last week. The strikes mark the culmination of efforts by the terror group to acquire a missile capability against Israeli cities near the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Earlier variants of the rocket, the 4.5-kilometer range "Kassam-1" and the 8-kilometer range "Kassam-2," were deemed insufficient to target Israeli population centers. The group is also believed to be acquiring the ability to equip the rockets with a chemical payload. WASHINGTON, NEW DELHI DIALOGUE WARMS Prospects for an Indo-American dialogue on missile defense appear to be brightening. The September 19th India Express reports that U.S. policy experts are becoming increasingly optimistic about the possibility of missile defense cooperation between Washington and New Delhi. According to one analyst cited by the Express, "many US officials are keen to involve New Delhi in US plans for a multifaceted missile shield," and American policy planners have already made more than one trip to India this year to discuss the issue. Other experts, however, are taking a dimmer view of this tightening of missile defense ties. According to former Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Karl Inderfurth, such a move could have negative repercussions on South Asian stability. "Were India to proceed with an investment in missile defence... It is certain Pakistan will respond... Either by increasing its offensive capability to counter such a defensive shield or by pursuing its own form [of missile defense]," Inderfurth is quoted as saying. |
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