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MISSILE DEFENSE BRIEFING REPORT NO. 82, December 2, 2002
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC

Editor: Ilan Berman

 

A STEP FORWARD FOR AEGIS
The Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency and the U.S. Navy have announced another success for the Bush administration's missile defense efforts -- the intercept of a ballistic missile target in its ascent phase by the AEGIS weapons system. On November 21st, a developmental "Standard Missile 3" (SM-3) fired from the USS Lake Erie successfully intercepted a ballistic missile in its initial stages of launch from the island of Kauai in Hawaii. The trial, the third successful test of the AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defense element of the Pentagon's Ballistic Missile Defense Program, paves the way for accelerated testing for the program. Speaking to the Associated Press in the wake of the exercise, Missile Defense Agency spokesman Chris Taylor called the successful intercept a "major milestone."

This emerging capability could soon face its first real test. Middle East Newsline (November 21) reports that the November 21st trial was in part designed to gauge the AEGIS system's ability to assist Israel in the event of a war against Iraq. According to the news agency, the Navy is planning to deploy an AEGIS-class destroyer in the eastern Mediterranean by January, where it would participate in cooperative air-defense exercises with the Israeli military and provide supplemental protection against potential missile strikes from Baghdad.

NMD'S SHIFTING CONSTITUENCY 
The American public appears to be increasingly supportive of efforts to limit U.S. vulnerability to missile attack. In a November 22nd article analyzing the dynamics affecting the recent national elections, the Washington Post cites polls by the Pew Research Center that chronicle a significant rise in popular support for national security and defense spending in general - and missile defense in particular - in the wake of the September 11th terrorist attacks. The strongest emerging base for missile defense, however, comes from an unexpected direction; according to the Pew polls, support for NMD among female respondents nearly doubled post-9/11, to 51 percent, with 59 percent of women surveyed supporting the immediate deployment of a national missile defense system.

SYRIA EXPANDS ITS HORIZONS 
According to Israeli officials, Syria has made significant advances in its ballistic missile and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs, and has now accumulated a large number of "Scud"-class missiles tipped with chemical warheads. Officials in Jerusalem stress that over the last two years Damascus has commenced indigenous production of both the 550 kilometer-range Scud-C and the 700 kilometer range, WMD-capable Scud-D rocket, in addition to considerably expanding its stockpiles of nerve agents and chemical weapons. Israeli policymakers tell Middle East Newsline (November 27) that serial production of these rockets is now underway, with the Assad regime capable of producing approximately 20 "Scud"-class missiles monthly. As part of this expansion, Damascus also appears to have adopted a more active missile role in neighboring Lebanon. The Geostrategy-Direct intelligence newsletter (week of November 26th) reports that Syria has for the first time directly supplied Lebanon's Hezbollah terrorist organization with hundreds of new short-range rockets.

INTERNATIONAL MISSILE CODE TAKES SHAPE 
Participating nations have voted overwhelmingly to make the International Code of Conduct Against Ballistic Missile Proliferation a reality, various international news agencies report. 92 countries - including Russia, the United States and all 15 members of the European Union - were present in The Hague for the signing of the draft code on November 25th. The agreement, a supplement to the Missile Technology Control Regime, is intended to provide greater monitoring of international missile development and technology transfers. But despite garnering broad approval, the voluntary arrangement suffers from several significant deficiencies. According to the BBC (November 25), key players in international proliferation - like China, Iran, North Korea and Pakistan - have refused to sign on to the agreement, while other nations, including Israel and India, have rejected it because of its lack of monitoring and compliance mechanisms.

BEIJING TESTS "DONG FENG" 
According to a November 25th report by Russia's RIA Novosti news agency, the PRC has carried out a successful test of its "Dong Feng-31" intercontinental ballistic missile. The launch of the 8,00 kilometer-range rocket, which was tracked by Russia's space forces, reportedly took place on November 23rd. The missile was fired from the Wuzhai Space and Mission Center north of Beijing and struck a target in the Takla Makan desert in Western China.

 

Copyright © 2003, American Foreign Policy Council.
All Rights Reserved.

 

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