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Rhetoric Versus Reality On Ukraine
By Ilan Berman,, January 26, 2015

To hear President Obama tell it, the West is winning in Ukraine. In his State of the Union Address last week, the President sounded downright triumphant in his description of the current situation in Eastern Europe. "We're upholding the principle that bigger nations can't bully the small - by opposing Russian aggression, supporting Ukraine's democracy, and reassuring our NATO allies," he insisted publicly. 

China's Newest Sphere Of Influence
By Ilan Berman, Wall Street Journal Asia, January 23, 2015

You have to feel a bit sorry for the Obama administration. The White House in December announced plans to normalize diplomatic relations with Cuba, including establishing a U.S. Embassy in Havana and formally revisiting Cuba's status as a state sponsor of terrorism. The move was a clear effort by Washington to distinguish itself in a new international theater.  

The State Of The Union Is Great For Iran
By James S. Robbins, U.S. News & World Report, January 21, 2015

The state of the union is great if you happen to be Iran. 

On Tuesday, during the State of the Union address, President Barack Obama discussed his view of the continuing controversy over Iran's nuclear program. "Our diplomacy is at work with respect to Iran," he said, "where, for the first time in a decade, we've halted the progress of its nuclear program and reduced its stockpile of nuclear material." 

A Challenge To Modernity
By Lawrence J. Haas, U.S. News & World Report, January 13, 2015

"First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out - because I was not a Socialist," German pastor Martin Niemoller famously observed about his nation's intellectuals during the Nazi rise to power. "Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out - because I was not a Trade Unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out - because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me - and there was no one left to speak for me." 

Congress Should Act Against The Islamic State Group
By James S. Robbins, U.S. News & World Report, January 6, 2015

One of the first orders of business for the new Congress may be to consider a resolution authorizing the use of force resolution in Operation Inherent Resolve, the U.S.-led combined joint mission against the Islamic State group. Such a move would be long overdue. 

Latest In-House Bulletins

China Reform Monitor - No. 1140
January 26, 2015


China hosts Taliban delegation;
Chinese media expanding in Africa



Russia Reform Monitor - No. 1950
January 21, 2015


Fighter planes for Argentina;
Banning the Islamic State



Russia Reform Monitor - No. 1949
January 14, 2015


Kudrin: Russia on the cusp of "full-fledged" economic crisis;
Kyiv moves West, riling Moscow



Russia Reform Monitor - No. 1948
January 9, 2015

New signs of life among the Russian opposition;
Moscow maintains focus on nuke modernization, and the Arctic



South Asia Security Monitor - No. 355
January 9, 2015


Indian Ocean may be next desitination for Chinese oil rig'
Big stakes in Sri Lanka election;
China hosts Taliban, may push reconciliation;
India, Pakistan continue trading fire at LOC


Latest Policy Papers

American Deterrence and Future Conflicts
By Dr. Jacquelyn K. Davis , December 22, 2014

On the centennial of the start of World War I—a war that began largely as a result of crisis miscalculations

and escalations—we are entering a new era with important implications for deterrence, escalation control, and coalition management. Today, like at the time of World War I, we confront a large number of actors who have the potential to misread cues and red lines while relying on treaty relationships if they miscalculate. Then, as now, military technologies were widely diffused. Prevailing assumptions about how an adversary (or potential adversary) would react in a crisis or confrontation were based on imperfect intelligence and inadequate understanding of red lines...

U. S. & European Perspectives of Current and Evolving Security Challenges
By ´┐╝John P. Rose, Ph.D , October 31, 2014

As we think through the role that the United States might play in addressing future security challenges in the European and Eurasian arenas in coming years, it would seem appropriate to have some indication of the thinking, thoughts, and ideas of our partners and allies—especially those in NATO. Americans may feel strongly about issues such as missile defense, countering terrorism and stopping Iran from developing a nuclear capability, but do European and Eurasian allies feel the same?...

Protecting the Warfighter in an Austere Budget Environment
By David J. Trachtenberg , September 24, 2014

Winston Churchill is often quoted as saying, “Gentlemen, we have run out of money. Now we have to think.” A similar statement is attributed to Ernest Rutherford, a New Zealand physicist often cited as the “father” of nuclear physics. Regardless of who uttered this quote, many believe it appropriately summarizes the state of America’s defense establishment today. “Fiscal austerity” is the environment in which national security decisions are made...