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Cold Peace: China-India Rivalry in the Twenty-First Century
Jeff M. Smith, Lexington Books, January 2014

The twenty-first century is likely to witness Asia’s two largest civilizations, China and India, join the United States in an elite club of global superpowers. By some economic indicators, the two Asian giants are already the second and third largest economies in the world, and they are developing world-class militaries to complement that economic clout. While Beijing and Delhi have spent the past half-century free from armed conflict and enjoy cordial diplomatic relations, elements of rivalry have shadowed the relationship since the two countries went to war in 1962 over their disputed Himalayan border. In the twenty-first century, that rivalry has evolved in unpredictable ways, advancing in some arenas and retreating in the face of growing cooperation in others.

Implosion: The End of Russia and What It Means for America
Ilan Berman, Regnery Publishing, Inc, September 2013

Today, Putin’s Russia is fast approaching a social and political crisis—one that promises to be every bit as profound as the fall of the USSR. Author Ilan Berman tackles the crisis that has Russia on the fast track to ruin, and the grave danger Russian collapse poses to America’s security, in his new book, Implosion.

AFPC Iran Strategy Brief: Iran’s Naval Ambitions
Daniel Lee, September 2013

As Iraq and Afghanistan fade from prominence for American military strategists and diplomats, Iran is bound to take their place as a primary security concern for the U.S. and its allies. Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its support for radical Shi’a forces and terrorist organizations in the region pose significant dangers to the United States, its deployed forces and its allies. But for all the focus on Iran’s land-based operations, Iran’s maritime reorganization and naval advancemen present troubling challenges as well.

AFPC Iran Strategy Brief: The Sunni-Shi’a Divide and Today’s Iran
David Wurmser, June 2013

Islam has two main sects, Sunni and Shi’a. The process by which the original schism materialized and played out—though well over 1,400 years old—remains the foundation of the ideas and tensions which continue to drive the split. As such, understanding what happened nearly a millennia-and-a-half ago is essential to understanding the contemporary divisions that exist within the Muslim world.

AFPC CHINA BRIEF: China's Central Party School: A Primer
Joshua Eisenman, August 2012

The Central Party School of the Communist Party of China’s Central Committee (CCPS), established in 1933 in Ruijin, Jiangxi and now located in Beijing’s western suburbs, is the most important institution in China’s midcareer official training system. It is China’s premier facility and educational institution for the training of medium and high-ranking Communist Party of China (CPC) cadre from across the country including ministers, provincial Party chiefs and governors. Between 1977 and 2010, over 60,000 officials (including some who are not CPC members) were trained at the CCPS. The CCPS assists cadre from across the country and different ministries and Party organizations to form new and closer relationships, take time from their busy schedules to learn from past experiences, and functions as a policy think-tank and a theoretical research institute for the Politburo Standing Committee, the CPC’s highest policymaking body. Top CPC leaders have always served as CCPS presidents, including Mao Zedong, Liu Shaoqi, Hua Guofeng, Hu Jintao, Zeng Qinghong and now Xi Jinping.

China and Africa: A Century of Engagement
Amb. David H. Shinn and Joshua Eisenman, University of Pennsylvania Press, June 2012
Iran Strategy Brief No. 5: Iran's Venezuelan Gateway
Norman A. Bailey, February 2012

For years, the media and the U.S. government have repeated a familiar refrain: that the regime of now-ailing Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez, however annoying, poses no serious threat to the national security of the United States. Compelling evidence, however, suggests otherwise. Under Chavez, Venezuela has systematically opposed U.S. values and initiatives throughout the Western Hemisphere and the world in general. It has tried to influence political events in other Latin American countries, sometimes successfully. It has supported guerrilla movements and terrorist organizations in other countries (most notably Colombia). And it has facilitated the activities of drug traffickers active in the region, even as it has destabilized the regional status quo through massive military purchases.

The most dangerous threat to the U.S. from Venezuela, however, results from its facilitation and encouragement of the penetration of the Western Hemisphere by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Since 2005, with Venezuela’s assistance, Iran has created an extensive regional network of economic, diplomatic, industrial and commercial activities, with significant effect. The sum total of Iran’s declared investments in the region now stands at some $20 billion, at a time when the Iranian economy itself is in exceedingly poor condition. The depths of Iran’s involvement in the Western Hemisphere are all the more surprising—and significant—given that there is no historical or cultural affinity whatsoever between Iran and the countries on this side of the Atlantic. Nevertheless, the Iranian regime in recent years has exhibited an unprecedented level of interest and involvement in the region, facilitated by its burgeoning strategic partnership with Caracas.

Iran Strategy Brief No. 4: Hezbollah's Inroads Into The Western Hemisphere
Ilan Berman, August 2011

A year after the attacks of September 11th, then-Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, in contextualizing the terrorist threat facing the country, made a telling assessment. “Hezbollah may be the A-team of terrorists,” Mr. Armitage told an audience at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, DC, “and maybe al-Qaida is actually the B-team.” The description was apt, and remains so. With a presence in an estimated forty countries on five different continents, the Lebanese Shi’ite militia represents one of the very few terrorist groups active today that possess a truly global presence and reach.

This footprint extends not only to the greater Middle East and Europe, but to the Western Hemisphere as well. Over the past quarter-century, Hezbollah has devoted considerable energy and resources to establishing an extensive network of operations throughout the Americas. Today, its web of activity in our hemisphere stretches from Canada to Argentina, and encompasses a wide range of illicit activities and criminal enterprises, from drug trafficking to recruitment to fundraising and training.

Toward An Economic Warfare Stategy Against Iran
Report of the American Foreign Policy Task Force, June 2010

America's strategy toward Iran is faltering. Nearly seven years after the disclosure of the Iranian regime’s nuclear program, and a year-and-a-half after the start of “engagement” on the part of the Obama administration, Washington has yet to see a substantive diplomatic breakthrough in the deepening international impasse over the Iranian regime’s nuclear ambitions. To the contrary, mounting evidence suggests that Iran’s rulers have used the strategic pause aff orded by American outreach to forge ahead with their nuclear endeavor, adding permanence to Iran’s increasingly mature and menacing atomic effort.

Multilateral eff orts at sanctions, meanwhile, have failed to keep pace with these advances. Between 2006 and 2008, three rounds of international sanctions were authorized and enacted by the United Nations Security Council, with little perceivable impact on Iran’s nuclear decisionmaking. A fourth round of sanctions has just been finalized by the United States and other Permanent Security Council members. Yet already, there are clear signs that this effort, like its predecessors, will fall far short of applying the broad, comprehensive economic pressure necessary for Iran to begin to rethink its nuclear drive.

As a result, the United States and its allies in the international community will soon be confronted by the stark binary choice best outlined by French President Nicolas Sarkozy several years ago: an Iran with the bomb, or the bombing of Iran. If it hopes to avoid such a state of affairs, the United States will need to marshal a comprehensive economic warfare strategy toward the Islamic Republic — one that leverages the latent vulnerabilities inherent in the Iranian economy to ratchet up the cost of the regime’s nuclear endeavor. Such an approach starts by focusing on six discrete areas of economic activity that could be used to alter the Iranian regime’s behavior.

Winning The Long War: Retaking The Offensive Against Radical Islam
Ilan Berman, Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, July 2009

Winning the Long War is a trenchant examination of the past seven years of the Global War on Terror, the future battlegrounds that will confront the United States in the struggle against radical Islam in the years ahead, and how America can reclaim the initiative in what has become the defining struggle of the twenty-first century.