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An Iranian-Turkish Reset
Articles - July 22, 2014
 

Earlier this summer, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani paid a very public two-day visit to a surprising locale: Ankara, Turkey. The June trip — the first of its kind in nearly 20 years — represented a significant evolution of the political ties between Iran and Turkey. 

 
Iran Won't Slow Down On Ballistic Missiles
Articles - July 18, 2014
 

With time for nuclear diplomacy between Iran and the P5+1 nations (the U.S., UK, Russia, China, France and Germany) running out, and with the White House scrambling to cobble together some sort of deal with Tehran, it's perhaps not surprising that Pentagon's latest annual assessment of Iran's military capabilities has so far garnered little attention, either within the Washington Beltway or outside it. 

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 149
Bulletins - June 19, 2014
 

Celebrating divorce in Tehran;
How Iran helped Assad get his groove back;
Shippers remain wary;
A new wrinkle in Iranian cyber-espionage

 

 

 
Rouhani's Republic Of Fear
Articles - May 22, 2014
 

Will the real Hassan Rouhani please stand up? Since his election last summer - and especially since the start of nuclear negotiations with the West last fall - Iran's new president has become a darling of the U.S. and European diplomatic set. The soft-spoken leader who now serves as Iran's political face is widely viewed as a "moderate" counterpoint to his firebrand predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as well as a guarantor of a much-sought-after nuclear deal with the West.

 
Red Line Redux
Articles - May 20, 2014
 

The future path of U.S.-led nuclear negotiations with Iran, which have now reached a crucial stage, may be foreshadowed in the U.S. agreement with Syria to dismantle its chemical weapons program. Any U.S.-Iranian deal-making that follows the Syrian model, however, would prove nothing more than a pyrrhic victory, leaving the Middle East more dangerous and, ultimately, the United States less secure. 

 

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 148
Bulletins - May 19, 2014
 

Iran leads in misery;
An addicted government?;
A looming water crisis;
Food supplies, stuck in transit;
Iranian drones on the Syrian battlefield

 

 
Disclosure: Iran's New Diplomatic Weapon
Articles - May 5, 2014
 

Give the Iranian regime credit for creativity. In the midst of extensive nuclear negotiations with the West, officials in Tehran have apparently hit upon a new way to play for time.

 
Why Iran's Missiles Matter
Articles - April 24, 2014
 

In the current debate over the Iranian bomb, the White House is staying quiet about its concerns over the regime’s progress on missile development. It’s the dog that isn’t barking. 

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 147
Bulletins - April 17, 2014
 

Iran puts Hezbollah's house in order;
The controversy over Aboutalebi;
Iran fights the demographic future;
Iranian energy: Out of the box

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 146
Bulletins - April 3, 2014
 

The IRGC versus Rouhani;
Iran's ties with Hamas: Back on track
Iran's oil export surge;
Fear and loathing in Sana'a;
A tug-of-war over investment in Iran

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 145
Bulletins - March 11, 2014
 

Back to a "resistance" economy;
Back to business as usual with Beijing...;
...as Iran works to improve investment climate;
IAEA plays politics with Iran nuke data;
Iranian arms to Iraq;
New Iranian  weapons shipment to Gaza seized

 
The Disarmament Fallacy
Articles - March 4, 2014
 

The campaign to reach “global zero” — the elimination of all nuclear weapons worldwide — has become a cause celebre among an array of retired statesmen, as well as an important policy priority of President Obama himself. But this effort is handicapped by its adoption of several seriously wrong-headed assumptions, positions and ideas that U.S. media outlets have tended to swallow without careful scrutiny.

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No.144
Bulletins - February 13, 2014
 

And the economic winner is...Iran's supreme leader;
Targeting America on human rights;
The high cost of labor dissent;
Biting the hand that feeds;
New natural gas links to Moscow;
A Turkish-Iranian thaw

 
Bring the Iran Deal Into the Light
Articles - February 4, 2014
 

In his State of the Union address last week, President Obama threatened to veto any bill imposing new sanctions on Iran. “For the sake of our national security,” he said, “we must give diplomacy a chance to succeed.” But there is no way to know if diplomacy is succeeding if the terms of the deal with Iran are kept secret, and the mystery shrouding the agreement only encourages those seeking definitive action through sanctions.

 
Israel Keeps Its Options Open On Iran
Articles - January 22, 2014
 

Is an Israeli military attack against Iran truly off the table? Conventional wisdom certainly seems to think that it is. In the aftermath of the signing of an interim nuclear deal in Geneva this past November, the foreign policy cognoscenti in Washington, and elsewhere, have been vocal about the fact that they believe the bell has effectively tolled on the possibility of Israeli military action.

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 143
Bulletins - January 20, 2014
 

Exporting the Basig model;
Iran's trade partners see to reengage...;
...As new ones emerge

 
The Iranian Kabuki dance
Articles - January 16, 2014
 

Starting next Monday, Iran will formally implement an interim agreement with the West. President Rohani has described the accord as the world "bowing to Iran's might, power and resistance." The Islamic Republic has agreed to limit certain aspects of its nuclear activities for six months in return for what has been called "modest" relief from the crippling international sanctions imposed for most of the last decade. But the West, by rolling back the sanctions regime, has given Tehran an opportunity to reinvigorate its economic and diplomatic ties with the rest of the world, and Western countries have eagerly exploited the opening to do business with Iran. Re-legitimizing business as usual before Iran makes any significant concessions on its nuclear program not only sends the wrong message, but impairs the West's ability to negotiate effectively.

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 142
Bulletins - December 26, 2013
 

Sanctions relief, but how significant?;
Corporations jockey for business in Iran...;
...While oil buyers dive back in

 

 
The Real Cost of Geneva
Articles - December 17, 2013
 

Start preparing for Pax Iranica. That is the unspoken message behind the interim nuclear agreement hammered out between the P5+1 powers and Iran in Geneva last month. For, despite the insistence in Washington and European capitals that it is only temporary, the new deal has nonetheless prompted what amounts to a seismic shift in Middle Eastern politics.

 
Iran Checkmates the P5+1
Articles - December 3, 2013
 

In the deal between Iran and the six world powers, it appears that a rogue regime marching towards nuclearization has outmaneuvered the West. In disarming the sanctions regime so painstakingly put together over the last few years, the Iranians have given almost nothing meaningful in return. Instead, they are employing the same playbook that brought the mullahcracy to power and the very strategy that allowed North Korea to get the bomb. Above all, Iran now has an international mechanism that will allow it to effectively play for time.