A RESILIENT RUSSIAN SUPPLY NETWORK
Over the course of its war on Ukraine, Russia has bolstered its military capabilities by replenishing its stocks of conventional weapons. It has done so through a variety of means – including refurbishing existing Soviet-era equipment and procuring replacement parts from countries such as China, North Korea, and Iran. Moreover, there's been a notable surge in military expenditures on the part of the Kremlin, and Russian officials claim this has resulted in record outputs in armored vehicles, tanks, drones, and artillery shells.
All of the above requires a resilient supply pipeline, and one of Moscow's signal achievements has been to keep the flow of military parts and munitions flowing despite Western sanctions. Russia has forged new supply routes for Western components via intermediary countries and sourced essential raw materials from states like Estonia and Latvia. It has also continued joint projects with Iran to develop drone manufacturing infrastructure and boost production of its domestically-made Lancet self-detonating drone. As a result, a new report from the Kyiv School of Economics lays out, Russia has faced only a marginal disruption to its imports of vital goods despite what were supposed to be crippling Western sanctions. (Washington Post, April 19, 2024)
THE COSTS OF OPPOSING THE WAR
In July of 2022, a Moscow court sentenced Yuri Kokhovets to five-year compulsory labor for expressing anti-war sentiments to broadcaster Radio Free Europe. Kokhovets had voiced criticism of Russia's involvement in the conflict in Ukraine, arguing that the government's justifications were unfounded and calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities. As a result, he faced charges of disseminating "false information" about the Russian military under recently enacted laws amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Authorities particularly targeted his comments regarding alleged atrocities committed by Russian soldiers in Bucha.
The court's ruling is perceived as relatively lenient in present-day Russia, considering that Kokhovets could have been sentenced to up to a decade in prison. Similar investigations have been launched against Russian citizens interviewed by Deutsche Welle, another foreign media outlet branded as a "foreign agent" by the Russian government. Moscow's crackdown on critics of the war has even extended outside of the country, with European authorities recently apprehending suspects linked to an assault on Russian opposition figure Leonid Volkov in Lithuania. (Washington Post, April 22, 2024)
A GROWING RUSSIAN PRESENCE IN LIBYA
Russian vessels have reportedly been delivering significant amounts of military equipment, including artillery, armored vehicles, and rocket launchers, to the eastern Libyan port of Tobruk. The shipments follow repeated visits to the country by Russian deputy defense minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, to coordinate with Gen. Khalifa Haftar, the warlord in control of the east of the country. But Russia's presence in Libya is about more than reinforcing a regional ally. Rather, there are increasing indications that Russian weapons are flowing to other regional states via Libya. "Eastern Libya is becoming a significant way station into Africa for Russia," confirms Ben Fishman of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. (Defense News, April 19, 2024)
SWEDEN HARDENS ITS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE...
On the heels of its recent accession to NATO, Sweden is prioritizing the safety of its energy infrastructure against potential Russian threats. Stockholm's concerns stem from Russia's conduct during its offensive against Ukraine, which has included the aggressive targeting of that country’s energy facilities. Given its proximity to Ukraine, Sweden has become acutely aware of the vulnerability of its own infrastructure to Russian tactics, which include large-scale shelling and surveillance. In particular, Sweden's extensive power line infrastructure and the country's reliance on particular facilities has raise alarms among policymakers. In response, the government of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has undertaken a plan to harden its energy infrastructure. The Swedish government is implementing measures to enhance monitoring, fortify relevant facilities, and increase civil defense funding. (Newsweek, April 24, 2024)
...AND EYES RUSSIAN ESPIONAGE IN THE BALTICS
Russia doesn't just pose a threat to Swedish energy infrastructure, however. The country's Navy Chief, Ewa Skoog Haslum, has warned that Russia may be using its "shadow fleet" of oil tankers for espionage operations in the Baltic Sea. These old vessels, operating under uncertain ownership, are suspected of being used by Russia to bypass oil export controls. The Swedish Navy has observed communications and signals equipment on some of these ships, indicating their potential use in "hybrid operations" and signals intelligence. The possibility has heightened concerns in Stockholm and other NATO capitals, against the backdrop of warnings by research centers like the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War that Russia may be preparing for a potential future conflict with NATO based on recent military decrees and changes to the structure of its armed forces. (Newsweek, April 23, 2024)
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