Al-QAEDA’S NEWEST VICTIMS
Adding to its list of crimes against humanity, al-Qaeda in Iraq is said to be recruiting cells of children under the age of 16 to conduct attacks against Coalition and government officials. These “Children of Paradise” are reportedly being recruited from orphans of the war and from families willing to trade their children for a lump sum of cash. Sunni militias allied against al-Qaeda estimate that the child conscripts are responsible for dozens of recent attacks in Iraq. (Rome AKI, June 13, 2008)
“STATUS OF FORCES” ON HOLD
Given the pressure to torpedo the planned U.S.-Iraqi “status of forces” arrangement from all corners of Iraq and the broader Middle East, it is not surprising Washington and Baghdad have been forced to settle for a more limited “bridge” deal. Heeding the concerns of opponents as diverse as Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, and some Kurdish leaders, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has held firm to his insistence on a limited, one-year “bridge” agreement to begin in January 2009, when the UN mandate for Iraq expires. Settling for a less formalized agreement also should allow Prime Minister Maliki and President Bush to sidestep their respective legislatures, both of which have shown hostility toward the idea of an expanded status of forces arrangement. Details of the formal treaty, where touchy subjects such as legal immunity for U.S. soldiers remain unresolved, will then fall to the next administration. (Associated Press, June 22, 2008; Christian Science Monitor, July 14, 2008)
ALL EYES ON THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
With some 40 percent of the world’s traded oil supplies passing through its waters, the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most vital strategic and economic “chokepoints” in the world. Which is why Iran’s latest threat to use “all of its capabilities against the enemy, and definitely [its] control of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz” in the event of an attack on the Islamic Republic sparked such a swift response from the U.S. navy’s Fifth Fleet. Addressing the threat issued by IRGC commander Mohammed Ali Jafari, Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff parsed no words: “They will not close [the Strait]… They will not be allowed to close it.” Cosgriff also reminded his counterpart that any moves to close the Strait would be an affront not to the U.S. but “against the international community.” (Agence France-Presse, July 1, 2008)
[Editor’s Note: The Admiral’s last point should not be understated. Despite the widespread perception of the U.S. as dependent on Middle Eastern oil, of America’s top five sources of oil imports only one is located in the Middle East. Asia, on the other hand, remains heavily dependent on the Gulf for oil imports, and would suffer the most as a result of any closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crippling the economies of some of Iran’s last defenders on the international stage.]
TURMOIL IN TURKEY
Turkey, a country with a long history of military coups, appears to have just avoided its fourth in as many decades. Following a year-long investigation into the secretive, ultra-nationalist “Ergenekon” group, a police raid netted 21 suspected coup plotters – among them two retired but influential generals, the editor of the Cumhuriyet newspaper, the chairman of the Ankara Chamber of Commerce, and several politicians. Binding the group together was their common opposition to the ruling Justice and Development Party, which many suspect of trying to Islamicize the country by stealth. Following the police raid, all eyes have now turned to the Turkish military, whose fiercely secular orientation, many speculate, could align it closer with the coup plotters than the current government. (Reuters, July 2, 2008)
AN ISLAMIST ATTACK IN UZBEKISTAN?
Uzbekistan’s response to a “mysterious” fire and explosion at a military base outside Bukhara suggests the government believes Islamist extremists to be responsible. The blast site contained stockpiles of rockets and other munitions, and the explosion reportedly “leveled” a hospital, train station, and a number of residential buildings. The official death toll stands at three, with twenty-one injured, but observers suspect the number may be far higher. The State Security Service and Prosecutor-General’s Office have been mobilized, while the ministries of interior and emergency situations will be playing “secondary roles.” (Eurasianet.org, July 10, 2008)