American Foreign Policy Council

Missile Defense Briefing Report: No. 246

August 12, 2008 Ilan I. Berman
Related Categories: Missile Defense; Iraq; Israel; Middle East; North America; Russia

IN ISRAEL, PLANNING FOR CONFLICT...
Israel’s military has carried out maneuvers simulating a simultaneous attack from the Islamic Republic, neighboring Syria, and the Hezbollah terrorist organization in Lebanon, Ha’aretz (August 8) has reported. According to the Tel Aviv daily, the drills were carried out by the Israeli Air Force’s anti-aircraft division as part of national preparations for a possible military showdown with Iran over its nuclear program.

At the same time, officials in Jerusalem are continuing to actively expand their missile defense relationship with Washington. Ha’aretz (August 6) reports that Lieutenant General Trey Obering, the head of the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency, approved collaborative work with Israel on the development of the “Arrow 3,” a next-generation model of the successful “Arrow” interceptor, during his recent trip to Israel. The news follows revelations that the United States has agreed to provide Israel with access to advanced X-band radar surveillance as part of its efforts to beef up its abilities to detect and neutralize a potential strike from Iran.

...AND ELIMINATING THE COMPETITION
Israel also appears to be preparing for a possible sale by Russia of advanced S-300 air and missile defense systems to Iran. While officials in Jerusalem say that “no one really knows yet if and when Iran will get the system," Israeli military planners are actively preparing for the possibility that it will. "Russia will have to think real hard before delivering this system to Iran, which is possibly on the brink of conflict with either Israel or the U.S., since if the system is delivered, an EW [electronic warfare] system will likely be developed to neutralize it, and if that happens it would be catastrophic not only for Iran but also for Russia," a Israeli defense official has said in comments carried by the Jerusalem Post (August 8).

THE UAE GETS SERIOUS
Israel is not the only country planning a response to Iran’s burgeoning strategic capabilities. Abu Dhabi’s The National newspaper (August 12) reports that the United Arab Emirates is considering the acquisition of some $9 billion worth of advanced anti-missile technologies as part of an effort to create a national shield against ballistic missile threats. Among the systems being considered by the government of President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al-Nahyan are the long-range THAAD system and medium-range SLAMRAAM missiles manufactured by U.S. firms Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, respectively. But purchases of Russian anti-missile systems are also a possibility, with the Almaz Central Design Bureau actively bidding to sell its S-400 “Triumf” system to Abu Dhabi.

INCHING TOWARD LASER DEFENSE IN IRAQ
U.S. and Coalition forces in Iraq could eventually have a new layer of defense in their efforts to secure the former Ba’athist state. Popular Mechanics reports in its July 22nd issue that the U.S. military is moving closer to awarding a contract for a mobile high energy laser system capable of countering mortar rounds being used by Iraqi insurgents. A year ago, the science trade magazine reports, the Pentagon asked the Boeing Company to develop a truck-mounted laser for use against incoming enemy artillery in Iraq. Now, with the preliminary project design complete, military officials are contemplating whether to award Boeing the contract, use a competing design from the Northrop Grumman Corporation, or fund both projects. Nevertheless, Popular Mechanics points out, an initial high energy laser capability is still years away, even if the project receives a green light from the Pentagon in the near future.

RUSSIA VOWS RESPONSE TO U.S. MISSILE SHIELD
In the most thinly-veiled threat on the subject to date, a top Russian diplomat has threatened to “neutralize” the Bush administration’s planned missile defense deployment in Europe. “If we see the development of systems that could reduce our deterrent potential, our military will have to take steps to neutralize the threat" through means “decided by military specialists," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak has told reporters in Moscow in comments carried by the Agence France Presse (July 14).

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