COURTING LEBANON'S SALAFIS
Like Iraq, Lebanon is one of the few Arab countries in the region with a large Shi'ite population. and a long and bloody sectarian rivalry. The latest sectarian row began when the Belief and Justice Movement, a group of Lebanese Salafists (Sunni fundamentalists whose ideology that helped spawn al-Qaeda) agreed to a memorandum of understanding with Hezbollah, Lebanon's dominant Iranian-backed Shi'ite militia. The agreement sparked an outrage among the broader Salafist community, which has long considered Shi'ites to be heretics. The Belief and Justice Movement to responded, suspending its pact with Hezbollah two days later.
Hezbollah's active courtship of the Sunni Salafists has led to a scramble to gain favor with the group by all of Lebanon's parties. Even the country’s secular Sunnis - including the U.S.-backed Future Movement - have been trying to strengthen their links to the Salafists. So too, it now seems, is al-Qaeda: the group's second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, released a video tape in early September mocking Hezbollah and Iran -- a direct appeal to the anti-Shiite Salafi community. "Condemning Hezbollah and Iran brings Lebanese [Salafists] closer to al-Qaeda's agenda," explains Sheikh Omar Bakri, a Salafi cleric from Tripoli. (Christian Science Monitor, September 24, 2008)
A NEW SECURITY BLOC FOR CENTRAL ASIA?
The countries of Central Asia are laying the groundwork to establish a new regional military force under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The organization - which groups Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan with Moscow allies Belarus and Armenia - has announced plans for an 11,000-strong regional army financed and supplied largely by Russia. Though officially intended to counter the growing insurgency in Afghanistan, regional officials have also tasked the new organization with defending against "challenges to the [member states'] sovereignty." Many in the region view the move as another effort by Russia to extend its influence into its "near abroad" and entrench regional dependence on Moscow.
The CSTO failed to move on a similar proposal floated by Moscow in 2005, in part because the Central Asian states have been keen to maintain their growing ties with the West. This time around, however, the four former Soviet Republics have officially signaled their plans to participate in the notional grouping, which excludes China and thus is seen by many as more malleable to Russian interests than its regional peer, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. (Radio Free Europe, September 19, 2008)
IRAN REVIVES ISLAND DISPUTE
Iran is ratcheting up the pressure on the United Arab Emirates in a longstanding dispute over a series of Gulf islands that both parties claim as their own. Last month, Iran announced it would open two new offices for "maritime rescue and ship registration" on the disputed island of Abu Musa, sparking outrage from the UAE. Ever since a 1971 Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and UAE on the fate of the islands, Iran has been pursuing a policy of gradual annexation, despite the fact that the UAE remains a major trading partner of the Islamic Republic and hosts a large Iranian expatriate community. The UAE, and its Sunni Arab neighbors in the Gulf Cooperation Council, used unusually harsh language in condemning Tehran's latest move, calling the new outposts "illegal installations" and urging the parties to take their dispute to the International Court of Justice. The Iranians, for their part, see no need for negotiations over the islands, dismissing the row as a "misunderstanding." (Gulf Research Center, September 25, 2008)
UNANIMOUS APPROVAL FOR IRAQI ELECTIONS LAW
Baghdad's political factions have reached unanimous agreement on critical legislation governing provincial elections now scheduled for early next year. After months of intense pressure from the United States and the international community, Iraq's Shi'ites, Sunnis, and Kurds agreed to set aside one of the most contentious issues dividing them - the status of ethnically mixed Kirkuk - and press forward with an elections law that will cover the non-Kurdish regions of Iraq. A committee due to report in March will be established to consider when and how elections in the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, which is officially outside of the Kurdish Autonomous Region but hosts a large Kurdish population, could be held in a way amenable to all the city's ethnic groups. The Kurdish Autonomous Region, meanwhile, will hold elections at a separate time next year. Stripped from the final elections bill was a provision guaranteeing thirteen seats in six provinces for Iraq's religious minorities, although a 25 percent quota for female representation will remain. (International Herald Tribune, September 25, 2008)