American Foreign Policy Council

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 189

November 6, 2008
Related Categories: Democracy and Governance; Islamic Extremism; Military Innovation; Caucasus; Central Asia; Middle East

ISLAMISTS IN SAUDI FACE THEIR DAY IN COURT
Saudi Arabia has made headlines in recent years with a relentless crackdown on thousands of Islamist militants that not long ago roamed the Kingdom with impunity. Riyadh claims it effectively “re-educated” some 1,500 prisoners it released a year ago, leaving between 2,000 and 3,000 subjects in detention. Now it appears upwards of 1,000 of those remaining in detention will be getting their day in court. Interior Minister Prince Nayef Abdul Aziz announced some 991 people will soon be brought before the judiciary and “each case will be examined in stages.”

The Kingdom’s massive roundup began in 2003, when a wave of terrorist attacks on Saudi targets shocked the conservative country into the realization that an entire generation of Saudi youth had been radicalized and that they posed a threat to the ruling order. With the announcement of the upcoming trials, Saudi Arabia released the first official figures outlining the devastation of the terror wave: 90 civilians and 74 members of the security services killed to date, with over 1,000 people injured. (Agence France Presse, October 22, 2008)

HEZBOLLAH IN OUR HEMISPHERE

The Iranian-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah has long been suspected of running financing operations in Latin America, where it was fingered for two bombings against Jewish targets in Argentina during the 1990s. Now a widespread investigation in Columbia led by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration has revealed that Hezbollah’s influence may run deeper than initially thought. The investigation uncovered an “alarming alliance between South American cocaine traffickers and Middle Eastern militants” - a complex, multi-million dollar underground network involved in drug smuggling, money laundering, and terrorist financing. Thirty-six suspects were arrested in the sting. The suspects are alleged to have worked with a Columbian drug cartel and a paramilitary group to smuggle drugs into the United States and launder money from Africa to Asia, granting Hezbollah a kickback of 12 percent of the profits in cash. (Los Angeles Times, October 21, 2008)

KAZAKHSTAN EASES COALITION BURDEN

Logistics is only one concern for the U.S.-led Coalition fighting an uphill battle against the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, but with Pakistan serving as the only operational land supply route, it is a significant one. However, recent action by Kazakhstan’s parliament may signal that relief is on the way. An underreported, but potentially significant Strategic Cooperation Pact with the U.S. was passed by Kazakhstan’s legislature on November 5th. The bill’s most practical application is designed to ease over-flight restrictions on Coalition re-supply missions to Afghanistan. However, according to reporting by Eurasianet.org, the pact may also “creat[e] the possibility that Kazakhstan would facilitate an overland supply route connecting the Caspian Basin to Afghanistan.” (Eurasianet.org, November 5, 2008)

[Editor’s note: The Coalition has long sought alternative land-supply routes to Afghanistan, a desire made all the more urgent by the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan. Islamabad understands that the service it provides to the Coalition is a substantial source of leverage over the United States. It has cut off the supply route before (though never for an extended period), and has periodically threatened a more substantial suspension.]

CREEPING PROGRESS ON NAGORNO-KARABAKH

Longtime regional rivals Armenia and Azerbaijan have reached the first joint agreement in 15 years regarding the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is claimed by Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenia. Some 30,000 people were killed in a war fought over the territory in the early 1990s, following the breakup of the Soviet Union. A 1994 ceasefire has prevented a return to full-scale conflict, but tensions remain high.

The joint declaration, which was announced by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, was light on substance (they agreed simply to “speed up further moves in the negotiation process"), but many in the region now see a rare window of opportunity. Armenia's new president, Serzh Sarkisan, has already made overtures toward Armenia’s other longtime rival, Turkey, and hopes run high that he will do the same with Baku. (London BBC, November 2, 2008)

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