[Editor’s Note: Since late December, Israel’s latest incursion into the Gaza Strip and its military offensive against Hamas has dominated headlines throughout the Middle East. The long-term effects of the conflict on the balance-of-power between Israel and the Palestinians, as well as among competing political factions within the Palestinian Authority, remain to be seen. What is already clear, however, is that the Gaza war is having a pronounced effect on the geopolitics of the region, and its consequences may continue to reverberate for some time.]
CONDEMNATION OF ISRAEL, SCANT SUPPORT FOR HAMAS
While most of the Arab media appears to blames Israeli aggression for the current crisis in Gaza, Hamas does not appear to be gaining support in the region. So far, most of the coverage in the Arab media has focused on Palestinian suffering at the hands of the Israelis, but fallen short of supporting Hamas in their struggle against the Jewish state – a trend that is likely to continue given Hamas’s recent rejection of the UN ceasefire proposal. Some, however, have gone even further, placing the blame squarely on Hamas’ shoulders. "O Israeli Army, attack the Palestinian terrorists who receive their orders from the Ba'thist and Persian terrorists,” Kuwait’s Al-Watan has editorialized. “Pursue the rebels of Hamas, the idiots affiliated with it, its foolish commanders, and its reckless leaders who use the guise of religion and exploit it. Crush them, obliterate them, teach them a lesson they will never forget. A lesson like the one you taught the defeated terrorist Hezbollah in 2006, teach them a really harsh lesson and free the Gaza Strip from the control of the terrorist Hamas.” (Kuwait Al-Watan, December 28, 2008)
FROM HEZBOLLAH, THREATS...
The Egyptian-Iranian rift continues to smolder, and the Gaza crisis has only added fuel to the fire. Cairo has made no secret of its belief that Iran and Syria meddle in its regional affairs by supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, and has taken a relatively even-handed approach to the current crisis, rejecting an immediate Arab-organized declaration that called for an immediate ceasefire and blamed Israel alone for the current hostilities. In response, Iran’s terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, has gotten into the diplomatic fray, threatening to attack Egyptian embassies and interests abroad. The verbal salvo has prompted one Egyptian diplomat to conclude, “If this is true, Hezbollah and its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah must be held responsible for this dangerous escalation. Also, if Cairo verifies Hezbollah’s engagement in attacking the Egyptian embassies abroad, or targeting any of its interests and diplomats, Egypt will not stand hands folded and will take necessary reactions.” (London Elaph, January 8, 2008)
...BUT NO ACTION
Is Lebanon’s Shi’ite militia participating in the fighting against Israel? Early signs point to no. Hezbollah has rushed to deny its complicity in the January 8th rocket volley launched from southern Lebanon into Israel. The Israeli government, for its part, has refrained from directly blaming the terrorist group in an indication that both sides were seeking to avoid an escalation. Hezbollah’s restraint appears at least in part to be the product of advice from Tehran. According to Saad Hariri, the majority leader of Lebanon’s parliament, the Iranian government has “pledged” that Hezbollah will not launch a military offensive against Israel in response to the current hostilities in the Gaza Strip.
Some analysts, however, are not so sanguine. "Hezbollah cannot allow Hamas to lose this war," according to Ibrahim al-Amin, editor of Lebanon’s pro-Hezbollah Al-Akhbar – suggesting that some disturbance in Israel’s North might still be in the offing. (Tel Aviv Ha’aretz, January 6, 2009)
SYRIA AND TURKEY ATTEMPT TO PLAY PEACEMAKER
Bashar al-Asad is getting into the peacemaking business. The Syrian president has reportedly presented his French counterpart with a joint Syrian-Turkish initiative aimed at securing a ceasefire in Gaza. The plan, pre-approved by Hamas, calls for a joint cessation of fire between “the Israeli occupation army and Hamas, the immediate withdrawal of the Israeli occupation army from the Gaza Strip, the return to the truce agreement that was signed last June between Hamas and the Hebrew state and which ended after a six-month duration and the formation of a special international committee to secure the opening of the crossing leading to the Gaza Strip.” (London Al-Quds Al-Arabi, United Kingdom, January 7, 2008)
A WARNING FROM IRAN
As Hamas representatives meet in Cairo with Egyptian Intelligence Chief General Omar Suleiman and his aides to discuss ways of ending the fighting in the Gaza Strip, two Iranian emissaries – Ali Larijani, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, and Said Jalili of the Iranian Intelligence Service – have reportedly met in the Syrian capital with Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal and Islamic Jihad Secretary-General Ramadan Shallah. According to an Egyptian official, the purpose of the Iranians’ mission in Damascus was to warn the Palestinian radicals against accepting the Egyptian ceasefire proposal. "The Iranians threatened to stop weapons supplies and funding to the Palestinian factions if they agreed to a cease-fire with Israel,” said the official on condition of anonymity. “The Iranians want to fight Israel and the U.S. indirectly. They are doing this through Hamas in Palestine and Hizbullah in Lebanon." According to him, the current conflict serves Tehran’s interests because the violence in the Gaza Strip has diverted international attention away from their nuclear ambitions. The Iranians are also hoping to use the Palestinian issue as a “powerful card” in future talks with the Americans. (Jerusalem Post, January 12, 2009)