TOWARD A RUSSIA-BELARUS UNION - ON MISSILES
The idea of an economic and geopolitical union between Russia and its former satellite, Belarus, has been on the table for years in both Moscow and Minsk. And while progress on the political front toward such a construct has been slow, Russia and Belarus are moving toward closer integration on at least one strategic issue. According to the Associated Press (February 5), the two countries have outlined plans to create a new joint military system to monitor and defend their collective airspace. The notional initiative, which will reportedly encompass five air force and ten air defense units, "will significantly increase the defense capability of Russia and Belarus," Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has said.
A QUANTUM LEAP FORWARD FOR IRAN’S STRATEGIC REACH
The Associated Press reported on February 3rd that the Iranian regime had launched a homemade “Omid” satellite into space from an undisclosed location using a two-stage rocket a day earlier. Officials in Tehran have called the test, launched in commemoration of the thirtieth anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, a “source of pride” for their county. Observers in the West, however, have termed it growing evidence of the strategic threat posed by the Islamic Republic. "Developing a space launch vehicle that could ... put a satellite into orbit could possibly lead to development of a ballistic missile system," the State Department’s acting spokesman, Robert Wood, is cited by CNN as telling reporters. Informed observers concur. “Only ten other countries have successfully launched satellites into orbit. Iran's new satellite-launching capability demonstrates rapid progress toward developing a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)--an advancement that would greatly extend Tehran's military reach,” James Phillips and Baker Spring of the Heritage Foundation have written.
A QUID PRO QUO FROM THE KREMLIN...
The Russian government is actively testing President Obama’s commitment to missile defense. According to China’s Xinhua news agency (February 2), Russia’s foreign ministry has announced that it will halt plans to deploy units of its advanced Iskander missile system in the Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad if Washington decides not to deploy missile defenses in Europe. "If there is no third phase of the missile defense system, there will be no Iskanders in the Kaliningrad region. If the third phase is set up, we will have to take measures in response," the ministry said in an official statement posted on its website. In his November 5th State of the Nation address, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev had suggested that such a deployment of advanced offensive missiles could constitute part of Russia’s answer to America’s planned “third site.”
...AS ENTHUSIASM DIMS IN EUROPE
A key player in Eastern Europe meanwhile, has put off formally deciding its participation in U.S. missile defense plans. The Global Security Newswire reports in its February 5th edition that the lower house of the Czech Republic’s parliament will not vote on whether their country should host components of America’s planned European missile defense deployment until at least mid-March. On February 4th, Czech lawmakers voted 100-73 to remove the matter from the parliament’s agenda during its current session, which ends on March 15th. Currently, there is no indication when in the next parliamentary session the issue will be brought to a vote.
The Czech decision is likely to be welcomed by at least one European official. According to the February 4th edition of the Irish Times, German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has called publicly for a tabling of the Bush administration’s plans for missile defenses in Europe in favor of a “new era” of disarmament. “I expect all sides to move toward resolving their differences on the disputed issue of the planned US missile-defence umbrella in eastern Europe,” Mr. Steinmeier has told Germany’s Süddeutsche Zeitung.