January 5:
Russia’s energy row with Ukraine is having a pronounced effect upon natural gas supplies to Europe, Istanbul’s Zaman newspaper reports. Four days after Russia cut off natural gas deliveries to its former satellite over ongoing pricing and payment disputes, the countries of Poland, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria have all reported declines in energy availability.
With Russia estimated to be losing some three-quarters of a million people every year to death and emigration, the country is widely understood to be in a steep downward demographic spiral. Recent data from the country’s regions, however, suggests a glimmer of hope in this otherwise gloomy picture. According to Itar-TASS, a number of Russia’s regions (including Altai, North Ossetia and Krasnodar), have charted positive growth – with live births outpacing deaths – over the past several years, and birth rates for 2008 have outpaced those of previous years.
The positive trend is being chalked up to remedial measures instituted over the past several years by the Russian government. "The program of federal subsidies for mothers of more than one child (also known as "maternity capital") has played a tremendous role in boosting the birth rate, along with the national project in the field of health care, which helped install modern equipment at medical facilities," Krasnodar’s deputy mayor, Natalia Makhonko, has told the news agency.
The Kremlin is reconsidering plans to institute sweeping reforms in the Russian military, RIA Novosti reports. The plan, originally proposed by Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov back in October, envisioned significant reductions in the number of flag officers and the dissolution of hundreds of standing army units. Following widespread opposition from uniformed personnel and an unexpected political backlash, Russian officials have scaled back their plans significantly. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has announced publicly that officers will no longer be discharged en masse, as originally envisioned. Instead, General Nikolai Makarov, the Chairman of Russia’s Joint Staff, has said, government officials are now revising Serdyukov’s plan in favor of “more applied and specific" military reform measures.
January 7:
Just days after approving a plan to arbitrate its energy dispute with Ukraine, the Kremlin has further slashed natural gas flows through Ukraine. According to the Los Angeles Times, the Ukrainian government says Moscow has ceased all natural gas deliveries to Europe via Ukraine’s energy grid – spiking fears in Brussels the conflict could generate a full-blown energy crisis throughout the Continent. "Without prior warning and in clear contradiction with the reassurances given by the highest Russian and Ukrainian authorities to the European Union, gas supplies to some EU member states have been substantially cut," the EU has said in an official statement. "The Czech EU presidency and the European Commission demand that gas supplies be immediately restored to the EU and that the two parties resume at once negotiations."
January 9:
The United States and Georgia have inked a new strategic accord in a move sure to raise tensions with Moscow. The Agence France Presse reports that the new “Charter on Strategic Partnership” signed by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze in Washington amounts to a “declaration of intent” to commit Washington to deepening its ties to Tbilisi. "This is the stepping stone which will bring Georgia to Euro-Atlantic structures, to membership within NATO, and to return to family of Western and civilized nations," Vashadze told reporters after the signing ceremony. As part of the new cooperation outlined in the “Charter,” Washington and Tbilisi plan to expand defense and security cooperation, officials said – an overt nod to Georgia’s recent conflict with Russia over South Ossetia, and America’s commitment to preventing a repeat of the situation.
The ongoing dispute over natural gas between Ukraine and Russia could end up having long-term adverse consequences for Russia’s strategic posture in Europe, according to foreign affairs expert Michael J. Strauss. “Ukraine has said it won't let Russia's Black Sea Fleet stay at the port of Sevastopol once its lease there expires in 2017,” Strauss, a geopolitical expert with Paris’ Centre d'Etudes Diplomatiques et Stratégiques, writes in the pages of the International Herald Tribune. And while Russia still has “eight years to convince Ukraine to change its position,” Strauss points out, Russia’s increasingly aggressive regional behavior could complicate the Kremlin’s bid to stay at Sevastopol. And if Moscow is forced to retract its naval presence from the Ukrainian port back to the Black Sea, “it would signal a reduced sphere of regional influence and a loss of face that [Russia] may feel obliged to counter in other ways.”