American Foreign Policy Council

Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1635

June 15, 2009
Related Categories: Military Innovation; Caucasus; Europe; Russia

May 15:

Russia is strengthening its energy hand in Europe. The Agence France Presse reports that Russia's Gazprom natural gas monopoly has signed a deal with Italian firm ENI to expand capacity of the planned Black Sea pipeline known as "South Stream." The deal, signed by Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and ENI head Paolo Scaroni in Sochi, would more than double the transit capacity of the energy route, to 63 billion cubic meters annually. As envisioned, "South Stream" will bring natural gas from Russia under the Black Sea to Bulgaria, and from there to Greece and Italy in the south and Austria in the north.


May 16:

Police have broken up a gay rights parade in Moscow, the New York Times reports. Some forty protesters were detained by police officers for their role in "unsanctioned" protests against discrimination in Russia ahead of the final round of the Eurovision singing contest.


May 18:

In yet another sign of ongoing economic malaise, industrial production in the Russian Federation continues to plummet. According to Pakistan's Daily Times, overall production in Russia dropped nearly 17 percent in the month of April, after falling more than eight percent between March and April. Among the hardest hit sectors is Russia's automotive industry, in which production has declined 55.9 percent since the beginning of the year. Cement and natural gas production have been nearly as hard hit, declining 34.7 and 24.3 percent over the past five months.


May 19:

The New York Times reports that United States and Russia have begun negotiations in Moscow on a new bilateral arms control agreement. The talks, part of the Obama administration's promised "reset" of diplomatic relations with Russia, are focused on the formalization of a fresh strategic arms reduction pact to replace the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which expires this coming December. The deal will build upon the 2002 Moscow Treaty signed between President George W. Bush and then-Russian President Vladimir Putin, which mandated that both countries shrink their strategic arsenals below 2,200 deployed warheads by 2012.


May 20:

Russia has halted plans to allow Syria to purchase advanced MiG fighter planes. The Jerusalem Post, citing Kommersant, reports that Russia's Defense Ministry has put a hold on a $500 million contract agreed to back in 2007 under which Moscow would sell Damascus eight of the advanced combat aircraft. Different reasons are being cited for the decision; defense industry sources believe pressure from Israel is behind the Kremlin's change of heart. However, Russia's Defense Ministry has cited a funding shortfall on the part of the Syrian regime as the cause of the termination.

Russia's leadership is shifting its strategy in Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, reports Nezavisimaya Gazeta. Initially, the Kremlin had promised to station 3,700 Army soldiers in each region as a hedge against renewed efforts by the government of Mikheil Saakashvili to regain central control. Of late, however, that number has dwindled in official planning to just 1,600-1,700 troops. The rest of the planned Russian presence will be made up of special border security forces from its main intelligence service, the FSB. As of yet, there has been no official announcement of this change of plans, but Abkhaz President Sergey Bagapsh, who recently met with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Sochi, has confirmed the news.

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