DEFIANT IN TEHRAN
New details are emerging of the extent of ongoing regime cruelty against opponents of the contested June 12th presidential vote. To date, according to the Iranian government's own official estimates, some 4,000 protesters have been detained in post-election unrest. Many of those are known to have been tortured, some have been killed, and others coerced into offering false confessions, according to multiple news sources. The repression has generated a growing international outcry. “Iran’s leaders must act, and act now, to stop the violence by security forces, including the Basij militia, whose disregard for the law and for human rights has been so shockingly evident in recent weeks,” Irene Khan, Secretary General of Amnesty International, has said. “The Supreme Leader and those around him must reverse the current slide into repression and respect the rights of the Iranian people.”
Regime officials, however, do not appear interested in doing anything of the sort. Indeed, some have reportedly called for the "arrest and punishment" of opposition leaders - including failed presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and former president Mohammad Khatami - for their role in the ongoing protests. "In order to end this mayhem, they need to arrest, try and punish these political figures," General Yadollah Javani, an official with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has advised the country's judiciary. "These individuals should be prosecuted, punished and tried as traitors."
At least one leading opposition activist, meanwhile, has come up with a novel approach to combating regime repression: preemptively denouncing his inevitable forced confession. “If the providence of God requires that I will be in jailed as my brethren have been so far and if, in jail and under pressure, I say something against what I have said, be sure that it is not my true belief and that I recanted under pressure," writes Mohsen Armin, a leading Iranian dissident, on his personal website. (Amnesty International, August 4, 2009; Washington Post, August 10, 2009; BBC, August 11, 2009; Los Angeles Times, August 13, 2009)
HOW IRAN SEES ENERGY SANCTIONS
The looming prospect of greater U.S. pressure on Iran's energy sector is being greeted with defiance by regime officials. Mohammad Ali Khataibi, the Islamic Republic's envoy to OPEC, has dismissed U.S. plans to consider imposing curbs on Iran's procurement of refined petroleum from foreign suppliers when Congress reconvenes in the Fall. According to Khataibi, Iran's role in the global energy market is so prominent - and the international community so dependent on its output - that such an embargo will not materialize. Analysts, meanwhile, are cautioning that such pressure, even if implemented, may be blunted by the likely consequences. A gasoline embargo will prompt rampant smuggling of refined petroleum from Iran's neighbors, making it possible for Iran to fulfill its gasoline needs via the black market, the firm IHS Global Insight has predicted. (Oil & Gas Journal, August 10, 2009)
A LEGAL OFFENSIVE
As international jitters over its nuclear program continue to mount, Iran has come up with a novel way of forestalling military action against its nuclear facilities. The Iranian government reportedly has floated a proposal to the International Atomic Energy Agency for a worldwide ban on preemptive military strikes against national nuclear programs. The Islamic Republic has expressed hopes that the suggested legal ban would be discussed at the upcoming 150-nation IAEA conference in September - the same forum at which the United States is expected to call for stricter action against Iran for its persistent nuclear violations.
Iranian officials are denying that the initiative has anything to do with fears of a possible preemptive military strike by Israel. "We are not worried about Israel," Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, has said. Instead, according to him, the proposal is a "matter of principle." "I think this is an urgent concern for all of the international community... All member states will support the idea." (MSNBC, August 12, 2009)