U.S. PUBLICLY EXPOSES PAKISTAN’S DOUBLE GAME
U.S. officials have levied an unprecedented barrage of criticism at Pakistan in a sign that a years of repeated crises and private accusations are spilling over into the public arena. The dramatically sharper tone was set by retiring Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen in testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee September 22. There, Mullen used unusually strong language to claim that Af-Pak’s deadliest militant outfit, the Haqqani Network, was a “veritable arm” of Pakistan’s intelligence service (ISI). Other U.S. officials have refrained from restating Mullen’s claim, but have reinforced the thrust of his accusation, whose language was vetted by the White House’s National Security Council before Mullen’s testimony.
Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who retired this summer, admitted recently that Mullen was “at long last giving a voice to what frankly we have known all along… there’s little question in my mind that [militants] receive support and protection from the ISI.” And during a recent news conference, President Obama stated there was “no doubt” about the ISI’s connections to “unsavory” characters, accusing Pakistan of “hedging their bets” in Afghanistan. He added: “Were not going to feel comfortable with a long-term strategic relationship with Pakistan if we don’t think that they’re mindful of our interests.” While tensions in the relationship have been building since the discovery of bin Laden in a wealthy Pakistani suburb earlier this year, the current uproar seems to have been touched off by a pair of attacks on U.S. troops and diplomatic personnel in Afghanistan in September that U.S. intelligence linked to the Haqqani network and the ISI. (Wall Street Journal October 8; New York Times October 6; Daily Beast September 29, 2011)
AN AF-PAK DIVORCE?
Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan appear to be headed in the same direction as its souring ties with the U.S. The Af-Pak relationship is saddled with deep mistrust and a wealth of historical baggage, but despite some hiccups, the leaders of both countries have strived to maintain cordial relations. Those efforts took a severe blow when Burhanuddin Rabbani, a former president of Afghanistan currently heading a high-level peace council tasked with outreach to the Taliban, was assassinated September 20. Afghan officials, including President Hamid Karzai, have publicly stated the assassin was Pakistani and the suicide bombing was plotted inside Pakistan and orchestrated by the ISI. Only shortly after, on October 5, Afghan security officials announced they had thwarted a plot to assassinate president Karzai that was plotted in Pakistan by the Haqqani network, which has been identified as having close ties to the ISI. The revelations have set off a furious round of accusations and counter-claims from Afghan and Pakistani officials, plunging the relationship to its worst point in years. (Reuters October 6, 2011)
KABUL TURNS TO NEW DELHI
In a bold sign of just how far Af-Pak relations have fallen, Afghanistan signed a Strategic Partnership Pact with Pakistan’s arch-rival India, on October 4. It is the first such agreement Afghanistan has signed with any country since the Taliban were removed from power in 2001 and it will cover “security cooperation, trade and economic ties, as well as social and cultural exchanges,” while an additional agreement was signed for the exploration of minerals and hydrocarbons in Afghanistan. Most importantly, the pact allows for Indian training of Afghan troops in the coming years. Pakistan, which has long accused the Afghan government of being “pro-Indian,” was unnerved by the agreement. Former Pakistani ambassador Maleeha Lodi warned over the summer that “any military or intelligence role for India [in Afghanistan] will not be tolerable.” (Bloomberg October 5, 2011)
AFGHAN DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN AID TROUBLING
It is an oft-repeated fact that Afghanistan is dependent on foreign donors to function, but the U.S. Government Accountability Office recently released a report demonstrating just how severe Afghanistan’s dependence has become. The analysis found that U.S. and international donors provide for 90% of Afghanistan’s total public expenditures from 2006 to 2010. Since 2002, the United States has allocated over $72 billion to the mission in Afghanistan while domestic revenues in 2010 amounted to a meager $1.6 billion. With the U.S. withdraw all troops from Afghanistan and turn over security responsibilities to the Afghan government in 2014, the report is raising fresh concerns about the country’s long term financial health and sustainability. (Washington Post September 20, 2011)