PAK LASHES OUT AFTER US ATTACK ON BORDER POST
In the series of crises that have struck the U.S.-Pakistan relationship over the past year, the latest may prove the be the worst. On November 26, U.S. airplanes struck a Pakistani army border post after joint U.S.-Afghan patrol on the Afghan side of the border believed it was being fired on and called in air support. The accidental strike killed 24 Pakistani soldiers and sparked outrage in Pakistan. A Pentagon investigation said the incident was the result of a “inadequate coordination by US and Pakistani military officers” and “incorrect mapping information.” U.S. troops however, believed they were under attack and responded “appropriately.” Nevertheless, U.S. officials have imposed a ban on the CIA-operated drone campaign, which has successfully targeted high profile al Qaeda and Taliban officials inside Pakistan but has raised the ire of the Pakistani public. An anonymous U.S. official told The Long war Journal that another drone strike now could “push US-Pakistan relations past the point of no return.” It has been well over a month since the last drone strike, marking the longest pause since the drone program began in 2004.
[Editor’s Note: The halting of drone strikes is not the only fallout from the November 26 attack. Pakistan took a number of retributive measures, including closing down the two road links into Afghanistan (Chaman and Torkham) for NATO supplies, through which 30% of the alliances supplies into Afghanistan now pass. Pakistan has also evicted the U.S. from the Shamsi airbase inside Baluchistan, from which many of the CIA-operated drones were stationed. Finally, Pakistan refused to attend the international conference at Bonn designed to map out a plan for Afghanistan’s future. Pakistan’s participation at the conference was seen as critical to any hopes of achieving a peaceful settlement to Afghanistan’s conflicts.] (Dawn News December 22, 2011; Washington Post December 19, 2011)
INDIA TO (RE) JOIN NUCLEAR SUB CLUB
In the next year, India is set to join the nuclear submarine club in more ways than one. Technically, India has already operated a nuclear submarine, having leased one from Russia between 1988 and 1992, but it has gone nearly two decades now without one of the premier subs. Next year, however, it will take possession of the long delayed transfer of another Russian nuclear submarine, the Akula II-class Nerpa, for a ten-year lease. Sea trials will also begin in the next six months on India’s first indigenous nuclear submarine, the INS Arihant and it is expected to be commissioned next year. The Arihant is the first of up to five planned nuclear submarines in its class. Both submarines will be based at India’s Eastern Naval Command in Visakhapatnam, with operational range extending to the east Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. Both submarines will carry nuclear strike capabilities, rounding out India’s nuclear triad. (Hindustan Times December 4, 2011)
INDIA, JAPAN, US LAUNCH TRILATERAL DIALOGUE
India, the U.S. and Japan have just concluded the opening round of a new Trilateral Dialogue in Washington. The meeting, held at the Assistant Secretary/Joint Secretary level produced few concrete proposals (none were expected), but provided an opportunity for the three powers to “mark the beginning of a series of consultations among [the] three governments, who share common values and interests across the Asia-Pacific and the globe.” In the past, India has been averse to any multilateral groupings that carried the perception of being anti-China. India reluctantly joined a “Quadrilateral Initiative” with Japan, the U.S. and Australia in 2007 only to have the group disbanded for fear of offending China. But New Delhi has embraced the new Trilateral Initiative pushed strongly by Japan’s government, and is reconsidering stronger ties with Australia after Canberra ended a longtime ban on exporting uranium to India in recent weeks. China had a measured response to the first Trilateral meeting (a second is planned for Toyko in 2012). A foreign ministry spokesman said “We hope the trilateral meeting will be conducive to regional peace and stability.” (Indo-Asian News Service (IANS) December 20, 2011)
“MEMOGATE” MAY PROVOKE CIV-MIL CRISIS IN PAKISTAN
The Pakistani scandal known as “Memogate” has already claimed several victims, the most high-profile of which was Pakistan’s ambassador the U.S., Hussain Haqqani. Haqqani was forced to resign after a U.S. businessman of Pakistani origin, Mansoor Ijaz, published an October 10 OpEd in the Financial Times detailing how Amb. Haqqani had in May asked him to pass along a message to then-U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Michael Mullen, requesting U.S. assistance in preventing a pending military coup in Pakistan after the U.S. raid that killed Osama bin Laden. In return for de-fanging the Pakistani military, the civilian government in Islamabad would grant the U.S. sweeping counterterrorism authorities inside Pakistan. The revelation embarrassed the government of President Asif Zardari and Pakistan’s Supreme Court has opened an investigation at the urging of the Army.
The country also appears to be inching closer toward a civilian-military confrontation. Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Kayani, submitted a statement to the Supreme Court charging that a conspiracy was being hatched against the army. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, said December 22 “there are conspiracies going on to pack up the elected government.” He later told parliament, in a not-so-veiled reference to the military, “There cant be a state within a state. They have to be answerable to this parliament.” Meanwhile, the Defense Ministry, which falls under the civilian government, made the unusual admission to the Supreme Court that it had “no operational control” over the army and its intelligence service, the ISI. (BBC December 22, 2011; First Post December 22, 2011)