American Foreign Policy Council

Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1766

February 27, 2012
Related Categories: Democracy and Governance; Economic Sanctions; Public Diplomacy and Information Operations; Warfare; Caucasus; East Asia; Middle East; Russia

January 24:


With the presidential campaign in full swing, current prime minister (and presidential candidate) Vladimir Putin has attempted to tackle one of Russia’s thorniest issues: nationalism. In an article republished on his campaign website, Putin has addressed some of the most pressing problems created by ongoing ethnic and religious tensions - and focused on state control and central power as the solution. In the article, Putin insists that Russia cannot operate as either a U.S.-style “melting pot” or a European “multicultural” society because of its vast multiethnic nature. Rather, “[t]he Russian experience of state development is unique. Ours is a multiethnic society. We are a united people. But when a multi-ethnic society is infected with the virus of nationalism, it loses its strength and stability...”


Responses to the article have varied. “Some of it sounds like cheap populism aimed at stealing the thunder of nationalist groups who are now in opposition to his regime,” the Christian Science Monitor reports Lev Ponomarov, head of the Moscow-based For Human Rights movement, as saying. “[H]is idea that Russians are, historically, the ‘state-forming’ people could be interpreted different ways, and could be easily abused.” Similarly, Nikolai Petrov of the Carnegie Moscow Center noted that “Putin’s basic idea is that different nations can exist [within Russia], but there is no chance for them to enjoy self-determination,” Moreover, he highlighted, Putin clearly believes “Russia should be as big as possible.”



January 25:


A fourth candidate has been approved for the upcoming presidential elections in Russia. Mikhail Prokhorov, the billionaire owner of the New Jersey Nets basketball team, was cleared for candidacy by the Central Election Commission, reports the Associated Press, following a review of the required two million supporting signatures. Prokhorov is frequently viewed as a Kremlin-backed candidate - one whose presence in the election is intended to provide the appearance of legitimacy following the uproar over December's parliamentary elections. His approval is especially suspicious given that just days ago Grigory Yavlinsky, head of the liberal "Yabloko" party, was refused clearance because of “invalid” signatures.



January 27:


The Central Election Commission has officially refused Grigory Yavlinsky entry into the country’s presidential elections. Yavlinsky, head of the liberal "Yabloko" party and a veteran of three presidential elections, maintained that his exclusion from this year’s contest is politically driven, while observers suggest that it was predictable. “The Putin strategy is to win the election decisively in the first round,” a columnist with the Moscow paper Kommersant has pointed out, “and the presence of Yavlinsky on the ballot would have complicated things.”


As the Christian Science Monitor reports, Yavlinsky consistently received a small portion of the vote from “urban, middle class intellectuals” in past elections, and therefore posed no real threat to the Kremlin. With this year’s political unrest and ongoing protests, however, the game has changed. “Unlike others on the ballot, Yavlinsky could be an acceptable protest candidate for millions of people who are tired of Putin. He could catch a protest wave that would possibly prevent Putin from winning a first round knockout. So, they decided he had to be excluded.” The exclusion of "Yabloko" from the race additionally signifies that the party cannot aid election observers in monitoring the voting.



January 28:


Although Russia has promised to block the latest Western-backed UN Security Council resolution on Syria, the new draft provides at least some opportunity for compromise. The resolution, which this time is also backed by Arab League powers such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, does not mandate new sanctions or military force, Reuters reports. It does, however, call for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down from power, and for the facilitation of “a political transition leading to a democratic, plural political system... including through the transfer of power from the President and transparent and fair elections.” However, even this comparatively soft language isn't likely to pass muster in Moscow. Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, has already indicated that Russia will not support any calls for Assad’s resignation. Analysts, meanwhile, have insisted that “Putin needs to be seen to be standing up to the West and making clear that the internal affairs of sovereign states, including Russia, are off-limits to foreign interference.”


January 29:


Despite the long-running Kuril Islands dispute, Japan and Russia have agreed to strengthen bilateral relations as part of a state visit to Japan by foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. The two countries plan to focus their cooperative efforts in trade, energy, and security, according to the Japan Times, and have additionally promised to seek a resolution to their territorial dispute in a “calm atmosphere.” The possibility for joint economic development projects on the islands was not ruled out, but Japanese officials claimed to have made “concrete proposals” that have been rejected by the Kremlin. Lavrov and his Japanese counterpart, Koichiro Genba, further have agreed to ease the visa process between their two countries in an effort to encourage tourism and business.


January 30:


As relations between the United States and Russia remain tense, ties between the U.S. and Georgia appear to be strengthening. According to Reuters, Washington and Tbilisi are in the midst of discussions over a possible free trade agreement. While there as yet is no timetable for the talks, in a recent meeting with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, President Obama indicated his belief that such a deal a "win-win" for both countries. Saakashvili, for his part, concurred, adding that such a pact “would help Georgia in its evolution as a nation.” Trade between the U.S. and Russia will also soon include free trade, once the U.S. Congress repeals a Cold War-era trade regulation as per WTO rules. In the same meetingi, President Obama pledged the continued support of the United States for Georgia’s efforts to join NATO.

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