TARGETING DISSIDENTS ABROAD
Iranian dissidents living outside the country are reporting a spike in death threats made to them, presumably by Iranian government officials. Those making the death threats, some of which have originated from emails from Iranian embassies, warn the dissidents to remain silent or face severe consequences, which include being arrested abroad and brought back to Iran. Some analysts further speculate that the Iranian government could be considering an assassination program against dissidents to boost the morale of its nuclear workforce following the high-profile assassinations of several Iranian scientists by unknown parties. (Tehran Rooz, February 10, 2012)
A HINT OF MODERATION IN IRAN'S PENAL CODE
Iran has adjusted its guidelines governing the death penalty, making them less harsh but maintaining their oppressive nature. Under new amendments to the penal code, Iran will end the death penalty for juvenile offenders, as well as eliminate stoning as a method for execution (to be replaced by hanging). While the amendments in principle represent a significant step forward, Iranian officials have not provided a definitive timeline for when the changes will take effect. Iran’s human rights record, meanwhile, remains terrible—and observers fear even more abuses as the country approaches legislative elections in March. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon recently indicated that he was “deeply troubled by reports of increased numbers of executions, amputations, arbitrary arrest and detention, unfair trials, torture and ill-treatment.” (Financial Times, February 12, 2012)
A HELPING HAND FROM ASIA
The Iranian regime could get an unexpected reprieve from escalating Western sanctions pressure from an unexpected quarter. While a number of nations have begun to back away from trade with Iran as a result of new measures from the U.S. and Europe, the government of Pakistani president Asif Ali Zardari has indicated that it is not—and in fact is prepared to fast-track a number of cooperative projects. These projects, discussed by Zardari and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during the latter’s recent visit to Islamabad, include a planned natural gas pipeline (the IPI) and a number of bilateral electricity projects. The two countries additionally discussed the use of barter and currency swaps in bilateral trade—methods that are beginning to be used by the Iranian regime in its efforts to skirt economic sanctions. The stepped-up cooperation promises to be lucrative for Pakistan; Iran already has pledged to increase trade with Pakistan by some ten billion dollars in coming months, and has shown willingness to reduce tariffs and increase its importation of foodstuffs from Pakistan as it scrambles to mitigate the economic effects of U.S. and EU pressure. (Karachi Dawn, February 16, 2012)
MORE SIGNS OF REGIME INFIGHTING
Iranian online censors, believed to be close to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have censored websites that are sympathetic to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The censoring is the latest sign of an unfolding power struggle between Ahmadinejad and his onetime sponsor, as Iran’s clerical elite seeks to trim the political sails of the country’s increasingly unpredictable president. Iran’s parliament has gotten in on the act as well; in what amounts to a political vote of no confidence, the majles recently mustered a quorum to summon Ahmadinejad to appear before a future legislative session and answer questions about his economic and political stewardship. (London Guardian, February 16, 2012)
A FOILED IRANIAN PLOT IN AZERBAIJAN?
Azerbaijan’s National Security Ministry announced on February 22nd that it had arrested an unspecified number of terrorists working for the Iranian secret services. The arrests come just days after alleged Iranian agents attempted to carry out attacks against Israeli officials in India, Georgia, and Thailand. According to Azerbaijan’s National Security Ministry, those arrested were planning attacks on foreign citizens on Azeri soil, had been gathering intelligence to that end, and had already acquired explosives to carry out attacks. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, February 21, 2012)