American Foreign Policy Council

Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1883

March 27, 2014
Related Categories: Russia

March 21:

In an attempt to forestall a further Russian foray into Ukrainian territory, the European Union has signed an association agreement with the new government in Kyiv. According to the BBC, the deal entails closer economic ties between Ukraine and the EU – effectively activating the arrangement that former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych was on track to sign last fall, before Russian pressure induced him to change course. The agreement, which is designed to bolster the political standing and economic solvency of the new Ukrainian government led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, is a recognition of the “aspirations of the people of Ukraine to live in a country governed by values, by democracy and the rule of law," EU President Herman Van Rompuy has said.

Moscow’s Dozhd TV is facing still more problems. The Moscow Times reports that the independent television station, which has progressively been dropped by national cable providers since a poll earlier this year asked whether Leningrad should have been surrendered to the Nazis, could soon find itself without a home. The channel’s landlord apparently has refused to renew its lease once it expires on June 20th, citing uncertain construction plans at the factory facility which currently houses the channel.

The Daily Beast reports that in the run-up to its overt invasion of Crimea, the Russian government used special forces operators and “provocateurs” to destabilize the territory. Now, U.S. intelligence officials believe, Moscow is doing the same in southern and eastern Ukraine. The online newsmagazine cites a February report from the U.S. intelligence community which predicted accurately that Russian agents would incite “provocations” in Ukraine itself, from street skirmishes to pro-Kremlin rallies, that would facilitate Moscow’s move into the country, if it made the strategic decision to do so.

According to the Moscow Times, Europe has added Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin and eleven other Kremlin officials to its sanctions list in response to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. Others targeted by the EU measure included Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko and the Kremlin’s newly-appointed media czar, Dmitry Kiselyov. The measure brings the total number of individuals sanctioned by Europe to 33.

March 23:

There are real concerns that Russia’s military adventurism might not stop at Ukraine, and will extend to Moldova, a top NATO military official has said. London’s Independent cites General Phillip Breedlove, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (or SACEUR), as noting that in Moscow’s eyes the Eastern European nation of Moldova, which houses the Russian-speaking enclave of Transdniester, could be the "next place where Russian-speaking people may need to be incorporated."

Bowing to political reality, Ukraine has closed its border with Crimea. RIA Novosti reports that Ukrainian border guards have formally shuttered the boundary of the region, which was officially declared to be the Crimean Federal District of the Russian Federation by Vladimir Putin a day earlier.

The Wall Street Journal Europe reports that the example of Crimea’s secession from Ukraine has generated renewed calls for stronger ties with Moscow in Moldova’s Transdneister. Lawmakers in the Russian-speaking region have formally requested permission from the Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, to follow Crimea’s example and declare independence with the intent of thereafter joining the Russian Federation. Russian officials are said to currently be considering the request, but the move has fanned fears in the Moldovan government, which has urged Europe to “accelerate” the country’s integration into Europe as an antidote.

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