BOEHNER IN AFGHANISTAN TO REVIEW ELECTIONS
Alongside seven senior House Republicans, Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-Ohio) visited Afghanistan last Sunday and Monday to review political progress during Afghanistan’s landmark elections. The vote was marked by an absence of large-scale violence, but Afghanistan’s election commission has indicated that a second round of voting will likely be needed as the top two candidates are currently garnering about 40% support each. The group of House Republicans expressed support for maintaining a U.S. security presence in the country after 2014 and both leading presidential candidates, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, have signaled their willingness to sign a Bilateral Security Agreement with the United States if they are elected president. (Wall Street Journal, April 14, 2014)
UN DENOUNCES NEPAL'S ALLEGED AMNESTY LAW
In the aftermath of a bloody, decades-long civil war, the UN has warned Nepalese officials that handing out amnesties for serious crimes committed during the conflict would only serve to “weaken the foundations of ‘genuine and lasting peace.’” In addition to the hundreds that disappeared and the thousands displaced, over 16,000 people died during the civil war between the government and the Tamil Tiger, with widespread accusations of brutal tactics employed by both sides. The government recently established two panels to deal with post-war reconciliation. The first, known as the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, was allegedly endowed the right to grant amnesty for war crimes. Many international organizations fear that such pardons would undermine any sense of justice in the fragile state. (Reuters, April 15, 2014)
AFGHAN PROTECTIVE GUARD DISSOLVED
Officials in Kabul decided to dissolve the Afghan Public Protection Force (APPF) this week, is a “crucial guard force” responsible for the escort and protection of military supply convoys, international aid programs, and foreign installations. The Force has been criticized in the past for being poorly managed and inadequately funded by the Afghan government. The dissolution is creating further uncertainty over asset security as the U.S. and its allies plan to withdraw from Afghanistan this year. (The Wall Street Journal, March 4, 2014)
INDIA-CHINA SIXTH STRATEGIC DIALOGUE BODES “BROAD CONSENSUS"
Top government officials from India and China held the sixth official round of Strategic Dialogue this week. In addition to discussions regarding India’s $35 billion trade deficit with China, diplomats discussed post-coalition stability in Afghanistan and the potential for negative spillover effects in China and India. Chinese President Xi Jinping has expressed interest in visiting India later this year after Indian national elections, which are scheduled to conclude in May. (Press Times of India, April 14, 2014; The Hindu, April 15, 2014)
RISING CHINA PROMPTS SPIKE IN INDIAN DEFENSE BUDGET
Indian Army officials have recently campaigned to raise India’s defense budget by at least 30 percent over the next 10 years if it is to have any hope of narrowing the growing military gap with neighbor-rival China. Currently, China spends well over $100 billion on its annual defense budget, which is more than three times India’s $33 billion allotment. However, closing the gap has become a great deal more difficult in recent years, as India’s economy has stumbled from nearly 10% annual growth to under 5%. The newly-established 17 Corps to be deployed along the China border will be raised over the ensuing seven years at the cost of $10 billion. A further $6 billion will be needed for roads and related infrastructure along the China border, $7 billion for tanks and light combat vehicles, and $3 billion for aviation assets. Most estimates suggest India’s needs will demand at least $150 billion in military spending over the next decade. (Defense News, April 14, 2014)
INDIAN ELITES STAND FIRM ON NO-FIRST-USE NUCLEAR POLICY
Amid speculative reports last week that the likely winners of India’s national elections, the BJP party, would review and possibly revoke India’s longstanding “no-first-use” (NFU) nuclear doctrine, the head of the BJP announced on Monday that the Party would do no such thing. The NFU policy has endured since its induction in the late 1990s and essentially promises that India would never be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict. The BJP still plans to update and revise India’s nuclear protocols but BJP President Rajnath Singh assured the world that “the no-first-use policy for nuclear weapons was [a] well thought-out stance” from the beginning. (Nuclear Threat Initiative, April 14, 2014)