November 27:
Russia is waging a qualitatively new informational conflict with the West, a new study from the Center for European Policy Analysis, a Washington, DC think tank, has outlined. "Unlike Soviet propaganda, Russia's information warfare does not crudely promote the Kremlin's agenda," states the study, authored by Russia experts Edward Lucas and Ben Nimmo. "Instead it is calibrated to confuse, befuddle and distract." While Russia's use of information warfare to shape geopolitical outcomes is not new, "its sophistication, intensity, reach and impact are increasing" in accordance with its growing role in Russian contemporary military doctrine, which incorporates "military force; information, political and economic measures; the use of the 'protest potential' of the local population; and the use of special forces."
The stakes for the West in responding to Russia's weaponized disinformation are enormous. "If Europe and North America do not urgently respond to this challenge, the West risks increasing public discontent, ill-informed decision-making, the rise of radical challengers, setbacks in the front-line states and a fatal blow to Euro-Atlantic solidarity," the study details. "Also at stake is the future of the West's ability to manage crises and to guarantee the long-term future of the European security order and America's role as a European power."
November 29:
The European consensus regarding the isolation of Russia is crumbling. The Financial Times reports that Germany's recent decision to open talks with Moscow regarding the construction of a new pipeline to bring Russian natural gas to Europe has sparked growing ire among the nations of Eastern Europe. Nine countries, including Poland and Slovakia, have sent a letter to European Council president Donald Tusk protesting the proposed pipeline, and demanding the project be formally deliberated at the December summit of the European Union.
The pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2, would be "detrimental in geopolitical terms" and increase Russia's capacity for "exerting more political pressure and applying blackmail on the EU, its eastern member states and its eastern neighbours," Polish parliamentarian Jacek Saryusz-Wolski has outlined. "In the current geopolitical context, enhancing Gazprom's - the external expression of the Kremlin's policy - position on EU territory could be a geopolitical game-changer, especially for the EU's neighbourhood."
December 1:
Russia is broadening its military footprint in Syria. Fox News, citing U.S. government officials, reports that Moscow is building a second airbase in Syria to supplement its preliminary installation in Latakia. The new facility, in Shayrat in the country's west, is significant because it leverages the site's preexisting airfield - something that would eventually allow Russia "to land fixed-wing aircraft." Moreover, the Shayrat base broadens Russia's military presence in the country to "four forward operating bases, including recently added bases in Hama and Tiyas."
The United States is belatedly mobilizing in response to Russia's breaches of a key Cold War era treaty, theNew York Times reports. The Obama administration confirmed in July of 2014 that Moscow had violated the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty through its development and testing of a ground-launched cruise missile. But worries over a further souring of bilateral relations has led the White House to adopt a cautious approach in response to the infractions - at least until now. A top Pentagon official has told the House Armed Services Committee that the Defense Department was gravitating toward a more "comprehensive" approach to the problem - one that views Russia's breaches as part of its overall threat to the Eurozone. "Our core objective remains the same: to ensure that Russia does not obtain a significant military advantage from its INF violation," policy official Brian P. McKeon told lawmakers. "As we consider the changed strategic environment in Europe, we are factoring Russia's increased cruise missile capabilities, including its INF violation, into our planning."
December 2:
Moscow is taking an exceedingly dim view of revived talk of NATO expansion. Reuters reports that a Kremlin spokesman has said that recently-announced plans by the Alliance to add Montenegro as a member "would lead to retaliatory measures from Russia."