ISRAEL BRACES FOR THE NEXT WAR
Israel's military is preparing for the next conflict with the Iranian-supported terrorist powerhouse Hezbollah. For the moment, a "mutual balance of terror" can be said to be in effect between Israel and the Lebanese Shi'ite militia, perpetuated at least in part by Hezbollah's ongoing (and costly) involvement in the Syrian civil war). But Israeli planners, cognizant of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's repeated calls for "conquering the Galilee," are nonetheless preparing for renewed hostilities with the terror group.
In particular, Israeli defense planners are anticipating a Hezbollah ground incursion into Israel's north, and have initiated a number of projects - including the creation of man-made cliffs and other obstacles - in order to complicate any prospective operation. The goal, according to one Israeli official, is "[t]o force Hezbollah to invest substantial efforts in their ground movement, even before they encounter the first IDF soldier and definitely before they encounter the first Kibbutz member or Moshav settler." (Israel Defense, August 4, 2016)
A LEADERSHIP CHANGE FOR BOKO HARAM...
The Islamic State's West African province has a new leader - and a new strategic focus. In recent days, Abu Musab al-Barnawi has been announced as the new leader of Boko Haram, replacing longstanding head Abubakar Shekau. Al-Barnawi has wasted no time in articulating a new, more mission-driven focus. "We will fight for the cause of Allah and work against personalizing Jihad and against unjustifiable killings and shedding of blood," the group's new leader has said in an explicit condemnation of the tactics adopted by the group under Shekau's leadership. Among the other complaints leveled by al-Barnawi against his predecessor is the widespread killing of Muslims under his leadership, as well as shortfalls in logistics and operations. "We have lost many territories in our emerging Islamic caliphate to infidels because of your laxity," al-Barnawi has charged. "You are the cause." (Lagos The Whistler, August 5, 2016)
...AND A SETBACK FOR ABM
The Egyptian government is claiming that it has scored a strategic victory against its most potent Islamist foe. The country's armed forces have announced that a major military offensive in the Sinai Peninsula has succeeded in killing Abu Doaa Al-Ansari, the leader of the Ansar Beit al-Maqdis (ABM) terrorist group, which formally pledged its allegiance to the Islamic State back in November. (Cairo Al-Ahram, August 4, 2016)
AN AL-QAEDA/NUSRA SPLIT?
On July 28th, Abu Muhammad al Julani, the "emir" of the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al Nusrah Front, issued a public statement in which he declared that his group, Jabhat al Nusrah, would assume a new name, that of Jabhat Fath Al Sham ("Conquest of the Levant Front"), and that it would henceforth have "no affiliation to any external entity," appearing to signal a break from Nusrah's long-time parent organization. Observers, however, maintain that the change is much less than meets the eye. "The move is being spun in press reports around the globe as Al Nusrah's official 'break' or 'split' from al Qaeda," notes Thomas Jocelyn in the Long War Journal. "But a careful examination of Julani's speech reveals that his wording was nuanced and he never explicitly renounced or truly broke from al Qaeda."
As such, the move appears to be intended to create the appearance of strategic distance between Nusrah and its parent organization. "Al-Qaeda gave its blessing to the move, reflecting an evolution by both organizations in their international strategies and a deep understanding of local Syrian dynamics," explains Mona Alami in Al-Monitor. (Long War Journal, July 28, 2016; CNN, August 1, 2016; Al-Monitor, August 5, 2016)