RIPPLES FROM NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR TEST
North Korea’s October 8th nuclear test continues to send shockwaves throughout Asia – and catalyze growing momentum toward missile defense among the countries of the region. The Kyodo news service (October 12) reports that Japan’s newly-appointed Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, is seriously considering whether to accelerate the pace of his country’s missile defense deployments. Even though work on the country’s missile defense system is already scheduled to begin in FY 2011, “[w]e will have to think about moving up the schedule as we need to remove anxiety among the people,” confirms Fumio Kyuma, Director of the Japanese Defense Agency.
South Korea, meanwhile, is pursuing a different strategy: greater nuclear deterrence, courtesy of the United States. The Korea Times (October 12) reports that when he meets Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in coming days, South Korean defense minister Yoon Kwang-ung is expected to lobby for a commitment from the U.S. to transfer tactical nuclear weapons to Seoul’s control in the event of a conflict. Specifically, the paper says, Seoul wants the U.S. government to elaborate on its pledge of “nuclear-weapons supporting measures,” including a list of the current tactical nuclear arms it may be willing to offer the South Korean government should the need arise.
ANOTHER SETBACK FOR SPACE-BASED DEFENSE
Inside the Air Force (October 13) reports that the House and Senate have erected an additional hurdle to the Pentagon’s efforts to begin work on a space-based missile defense test bed. The final version of the FY 2007 defense authorization bill, completed in early August, mandates that the Missile Defense Agency submit a detailed report describing the costs, vulnerabilities, and foreign policy implications of such a project – to be followed by a 90 day evaluation period before any funding can be approved. The move constitutes a major setback to the MDA, which has lobbied heavily for the funding. “A space-based intercept layer allows us access to the highly valuable boost/ascent battle space independent of adversary country size or threat raid timing,” the agency told Congress back in February. “It also protects the United States and our allies against asymmetric threats designed to exploit coverage and engagement gaps in our terrestrial defenses.”
A NEW CALCULUS IN OTTAWA
“One of the most lamentable moments in the brief history of Paul Martin's government was the day it chose not to participate in the U.S. missile shield,” writes columnist John Ibbitson in the October 12th Globe and Mail. The arguments in favour of joining were compelling… But pacifist and anti-American sentiment within the Quebec and youth wings of the Liberal Party was so vehement that Mr. Martin decided it was not worth the political cost, even though he was a public supporter of the program.” Yet today, says Ibbitson, the times may be changing. Despite an election pledge not to re-open the issue, the conservative government of Stephen Harper has been prompted by North Korea’s nuclear test and the recent successes of U.S. defenses to “reconsider its decision to remain outside the missile-defence umbrella.” Still, such participation may still end up being a hope rather than a reality because of political considerations in Ottawa, Ibbitson concludes.
SECOND THOUGHTS IN PRAGUE
Officially, the Bush administration is still searching for a European basing site for anti-missile interceptors. The prospects for missile defense cooperation with at least one candidate nation, however, appear to be dimming. Mirek Toplanek, a leading Czech legislator, has splashed cold water on the idea of his country participating extensively in Washington’s missile defense plans. "The missile base will probably not be placed in our country,” Toplanek has told reporters in comments carried by the Czech News Agency (October 15). If any cooperation does take place, Toplanek says, “it would be only a radar base with which 60 percent of citizens agree.”
Prague’s change of heart appears to be driven by domestic considerations. According to a recent poll by the CWM polling center, more than sixty percent of citizens in the former Soviet satellite oppose the construction of a missile defense base on the territory of their country, leading politicians in Prague to make assurances that no decision would be made in the near future.