BYPASSING PAKISTAN
[Editor’s note: With some three-quarters of the supplies destined for Coalition forces in Afghanistan forced to transverse an inhospitable land route through Pakistan, America has been searching intensively for an alternative logistics route to the conflict zone. The process was kicked into overdrive recently by a series of high-profile attacks on Coalition convoys and army depots within Pakistani territory, emphasizing the deteriorating security situation in that country. With the land route through Iran currently off the table, the only viable option is to Afghanistan’s north, through Central Asia. Governments there have sporadically expressed interest in offering NATO use of their territory, but short of using a lengthy and costly route through the Caucasus and Caspian Sea, the only path to Central Asia’s railways is through Russia.]
After a whirlwind tour of Central Asia by CENTCOM commander Gen. David Petraeus, NATO and Russian officials have begun substantive discussions on operationalizing an alternative supply route to Afghanistan. Russia already allows some Coalition members access to its territory for transit of non-lethal supplies, but the U.S. is pressing Russia to open the Central Asia route for all Coalition members and supplies. Despite recent strains in U.S.-Russian relations, it appears Moscow may be warming to Washington’s request: following “a very positive discussion” between Russian and NATO envoys, Dmitri Rogozin, Russia’s ambassador to the Alliance, told a Russian news channel that NATO’s failure in Afghanistan would be a “crisis” that could lead to extremists like the Taliban “coming north... toward Russia and taking more and more territory.” (Associated Press, January 27, 2009)
A HELPING HAND FROM KAZAKHSTAN
Despite Moscow’s apparent overtures on the Afghan supply route question, the U.S. is working behind the scenes to keep multiple options on the table. To that end, American officials recently discovered the one way to supply Afghanistan and still bypass Russia, Pakistan, and the costly Caucasus/Caspian Sea route: buying the supplies directly from Central Asia. According to a senior U.S. diplomat, Washington has reached agreement with Kazakhstan to supply “a significant portion” of goods and foodstuffs to the coalition in Afghanistan. Astana and Washington would then need only the consent of either Uzbekistan, or Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to reach the Coalition, all of whom have made positive noises about a hypothetical “northern distribution network.” The deal would come at a critical time for NATO, as Washington prepares to send an additional 32,000 troops to the battlefield. (Eurasianet.org, January 28, 2009)
ANKARA CRACKS THE WHIP ON ERGENEKON
The Turkish government’s crackdown on the Ergenekon – a shadowy, underground movement of well-connected secular Turkish nationalists – continues to make headlines with a fresh wave of arrests across some thirteen provinces. Included in the latest roundup were several active military and police officers. With more than 30 people reported to have been detained, and another 18 arrested earlier in January, the total number of Ergenekon suspects in custody may now top 100. The group, drawn from the fiercely secular judicial and military establishment, is accused by the ruling AKP party of plotting a coup against the government. Opponents of the AKP, meanwhile, suspect the Islamist-rooted party of undermining Turkey’s secular traditions, and of using the Ergenkon conspiracy to further its own political agenda. (Washington Post, January 22, 2009)
AL-QAEDA’S BIOLOGICAL BLUNDER
As many as 40 al-Qaeda terrorists were wiped out by the Black Plague at an Algerian training camp in early January. The revelation has raised fears among counterterrorism officials that the terrorist group may have been attempting to develop the disease as a biological weapon to be used against Western cities. In 2007, dozens of potential terrorists tried to gain access to British laboratories by enrolling as postgraduate students, and al-Qaeda has been known to experiment with biological weapons, according to Dr. Igor Khrupinov, a bio-weapons expert at Georgia University. “Contagious diseases, like ebola and anthrax, occur in northern Africa. It makes sense that people are trying to use them against Western governments.” (London Telegraph, January 20, 2009)