NEW AFGHAN SUPPLY ROUTES TAKE SHAPE
With the completion of a new deal with the U.S. to allow for the transfer of non-lethal supplies to Afghanistan, Tajikistan is helping to fill a logistical void left by the impending closure of a key U.S. airbase in Kyrgyzstan. Within weeks, Tajikistan could be handling between 50 and 200 containers per week by road or rail, transiting goods from neighboring Uzbekistan on to Afghanistan.
In Kyrgyzstan, meanwhile, conflicting reports have raised the possibility that retaining the Manas airbase could still be a possibility for the United States. First, Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev told the BBC in March that "the doors are not closed." Then, in late April, Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell spoke of "reason for hope there, that [a new deal] can be worked out." However, Igor Chudinov, the Kyrgyz Prime Minister, issued a swift rebuttal to the Pentagon spokesman's assertion, appearing to slam the door on future negotiations: "There was not, and is not, any order and authorization for any government official to conduct such negotiations." (London BBC, April 21, 2009; Stars and Stripes, April 30, 2009)
TURKEY, SYRIA IN NEW MILITARY COOPERATION
Turkey and Syria have engaged in an unprecedented joint military drill, the first ever in their history of (largely acrimonious) relations. The relatively minor exercise, billed as a measure to "improve security," will involve troops from both countries visiting military outposts on opposite sides of the border. At the same time, senior defense officials from both countries have met in Istanbul to sign a defense cooperation agreement. The surge in activity has raised eyebrows abroad - particularly in Israel which remains technically in a state of war with Syria but counts Turkey as one of its strongest allies in the region, despite strained relations in recent months. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak characterized the exercise as "definitely a worrisome development."
The cooperation comes as a surprise, given the historic rivalry between Turkey and Syria. Tensions between the two countries hit a peak in the late 1990s when Syria hosted Abdullah Ocalan, the exiled leader of the radical Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Ankara was so incensed by Damascus' hospitality that it massed troops on the Syrian border in 1999, before the Syrian government capitulated and handed over the terrorist leader.(Associated Press, April 27, 2009)
JIHADIST LEADER FINDS VALIDATION IN THE WEST
Abu Muhammed al-Maqdisi is recognized as one of the leading contemporary jihadi ideologues. A former mentor to al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Maqdisi's tirades against democracy and secularism, as well as his calls to violence against the "infidels," have been studied intently by Islamist extremists and Western scholars alike. However Maqdisi has come under fire from his jihadi peers in recent years for suggesting al-Qaeda be more discriminating in its suicide bombing campaign in Iraq. And Maqdisi's response to accusations that he had gone "soft" have raised more than a few eyebrows in the West; namely because he turned to West Point and the RAND Corporation to showcase his extremist credentials. Maqdisi proudly directed his supporters to Western literature identifying him as a "dangerous and influential jihadi theorist." In a jab at his jihadi critics, Maqdisi writes: "I am surprised at the low level of their thinking and how the enemies of religion [the West] read and understand us better than they do." (New York Times, April 29, 2009)
SECTARIAN TENSIONS HIT SAUDI ARABIA
[Editor's note: Although Shi'ite-Sunni tensions in Iraq have cooled considerably from their regional peak in 2006, an undercurrent of sectarian friction, elevated by Iran's growing regional stature and the political success of Iraq's Shi'ites, remains prevalent throughout the Middle East. This manifested itself last month in an unusually vocal spat between Egypt and Iran over the capture of a Hezbollah cell inside Egypt planning to attack Israeli targets in the region. A few months before, sectarian tensions had been inflamed by the arrest in Medina, Saudi Arabia of several Shi'ite pilgrims accused of conducting illegal rituals.]
The clash between Shi'ite pilgrims and Saudi security forces has contributed to rising resentment among Saudi Arabia's small but strategically-located Shi'ite minority. With a long list of grievances that include political under-representation, workplace discrimination and religious repression, Saudi Shi'ites have begun growing more vocal in their campaign for greater rights. A Shi'ite cleric in Awwamiya, Sheikh al-Nimer, recently threatened to "call for seceding from [the] nation" - a provocative claim from the historically docile Shi'ite community. The sheikh is now in hiding. In the same city, "Down with the government" and "Death to Wahhabi" are just some of the graffiti messages now visible on buildings in Shi'ite parts of the city. Shi'ite community leaders have distanced themselves from al-Nimer's secessionist comment, but with Shi'ites demanding or gaining greater representation in Iraq, Lebanon, and Bahrain, few expect Saudi Shi'ites to remain dormant forever. (Christian Science Monitor, April 27, 2009)