American Foreign Policy Council

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 205

July 12, 2009
Related Categories: Democracy and Governance; Human Rights and Humanitarian Issues; Islamic Extremism; Military Innovation; Terrorism; Caucasus; Central Asia; China; Iran; Middle East

A WAR OF WORDS BETWEEN BAKU AND TEHRAN
On the surface, Azerbaijan's relations with neighboring Iran are cordial. They are two of only a handful of countries that are majority Shi'ite. Azerbaijan's president was among the first to congratulate Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on his election "victory," which remains disputed by much of the rest of the world. Azerbaijan regularly defends Iran at the United Nations as a member of the "Islamic club," and commercial ties between the two countries remain strong. But there are tensions beneath the surface in Baku's relations with Tehran. Ordinary Azeris regularly accuse Tehran of discriminating against the Azeri minority in Iran and the Islamic Republic maintains close ties to Armenia, Azerbaijan's regional nemesis. Most recently, however, Iran has drawn the ire of Azeri lawmakers when Sahar TV, the Iranian regime's international broadcaster, criticized Baku for hosting Israeli president Shimon Peres in late June. Sahar, which is officially banned in Azerbaijan, dubbed the visit as "support for a Zionist regime that has committed genocide against Muslims" and warned the move would "have its own consequences." Azeri politicians have wasted no time in firing back; opposition lawmaker Panah Huseyn has gone on record stating the broadside "represent[s] interference into [Azerbaijan's] internal affairs," and that it "harms Iran's influence in Azerbaijan." (Radio Free Europe, July 2, 2009)

AL-QAEDA GETS ITS DAY IN (SAUDI) COURT

When Saudi Arabia was struck by a series of terrorist attacks from 2003-2006, which killed 120 people, the Kingdom launched a massive crackdown on al-Qaeda and its sympathizers. More than 1,500 suspects were rounded up and some 991 of them have been charged and awaiting trial for several years. Now the fate of a third of them has been decided: a Saudi court handed down sentences to some 330 suspects, sentencing one person to death and ordering house arrest, jail, or an acquittal to the rest, although exact details were not released. A representative from the Islamic Fiqh (Jurisprudence) Academy in Riyadh insists the prisoners will be allowed to appeal their sentences. (Cairo Al Arabiya, July 8, 2009)

TURKEY ON A TIGHTROPE OVER UIGHUR CRACKDOWN

Ankara has been put into something of a bind by the ethnic violence that has erupted in China's western Xinjiang Province between the dominant Han Chinese majority and the Turkic Uighur Muslim minority. Turkey has long modeled itself the promoter and defender of the rights of the Turkic peoples, retaining close links to the Turkic populations of the Caucasus and Central Asia. However, given its commercial ties to China, Ankara must now tread a thin line in criticizing Beijing for what many see as suppression of the Uighurs in Xinjiang. Turkey's Foreign Ministry released a cautious statement about its "deep concern" for the large number of deaths in the riots and called on China to "take the necessary measures to prevent the occurrence of such events in the future." Notably, it asked that the UN Security Council take up the matter. Opposition figure Devlet Bahceli of the Nationalist Movement Party was less diplomatic, expressing frustration at the "attacks and massacres directed at [his] Turkic brothers," further noting that the crackdown had come just days after Turkish president Abdullah Gul had visited China. (Istanbul Zaman, July 8, 2009)

AUTHORITARIANISM GATHERS STEAM IN EURASIA
The annual report on democratic development issued by democracy watchdog Freedom House has painted a bleak picture of the state of democracy in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The worst performer of the two regions, according to the study, was Azerbaijan, which experienced the largest decline (from 6.00 to 6.25, where the higher the number, the less democratic the country). Freedom House measures a country's democracy "score" by quantifying variables in the fields of civil society development, independent media, elections, and corruption. Kyrgyzstan, the only Central Asian state not previously considered a "consolidated authoritarian regime," was pushed into that category in the study's current iteration. Turkmenistan, meanwhile, retained its title as the least democratic country in Eurasia, with a 6.93 (seven being the highest and "worst" score). Kazakhstan was the lone exception to the region-wide rise in authoritarianism, inching down from 6.39 to 6.32. (Eurasianet.org, July 1, 2009)

ANOTHER IDEOLOGICAL BODY BLOW FOR THE BIN LADEN NETWORK

In recent years, al-Qaeda has been under and ideological and theological assault from a number of respected Muslim scholars and former jihadists, each of whom has repudiated the group's uncompromising and bloodthirsty ideology. The latest broadside comes from a cleric widely recognized as the most influential Sunni Muslim scholar in the world, Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi. No moderate by liberal Western standards, Qaradawi has long been an advocate for "legitimate" jihad and a fierce opponent of the State of Israel. Yet, in a new book titled The Jurisprudence of Jihad (Fiqh al-Jihad), which is expected to be widely read throughout the Muslim world, Qaradawi unequivocally denounces al-Qaeda's puritanical notion of jihad as a "mad declaration of war upon the world." The sheikh also urges Muslims to wage jihad through propaganda - through ideas, media, and communication - rather than through violence. This jihad, he declares, is "the jihad of the age, a great jihad, and a long jihad." (foreignpolicy.com, July 9, 2009)

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