A CARROT FOR TEHRAN
Only a month after American forces withdrew from Iraqi cities, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki ordered the Iraqi Army to raid Camp Ashraf, a sanctuary for the radical Iranian opposition group, the People's Mujahideen Organization of Iran, or MeK. Tehran has long lobbied Baghdad to close down the base and repatriate the MeK - which is registered as a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department - but the U.S. has blocked such a move since disarming the group and giving them "Protected Persons" status under the Geneva Conventions following the invasion of Iraq in 2003. In late July, however, the Iraqi Army literally bulldozed into the camp after efforts to set up a police station there were thwarted by residents. Eight people were reported killed and hundreds injured in the resulting incursion. Baghdad has denied that it will return MeK members to Iran, but says it plans to shutter the camp and relocate its residents elsewhere in Iraq or allow them to flee to another country. (Wall Street Journal, July 29 and July 30, 2009)
[Editor's note: The move indicates a relatively cost-free gesture toward Iran on the part of Baghdad. The MeK remain unpopular in both Iran and Iraq, and the group's Iraqi safe haven has been a thorn in Tehran's side for years. The move therefore allows Prime Minister Maliki to score political points with the Islamic Republic without paying a domestic price - particularly since the U.S. has raised little objection.]
TREPIDATION IN TASHKENT
Russia has signed an agreement to deploy forces at a second military base in Kyrgyzstan, reinforcing the 400 troops it already has based in Kant and sparking fierce resistance from Kyrgyzstan's western neighbor, Uzbekistan. Russia has long sought another base in Kyrgyzstan, a former Soviet republic, but has intensified its efforts since Bishkek announced this spring that it was reversing a decision to evict the U.S. from an airbase at Manas. Under the new agreement, Russia has committed itself to "protecting Kyrgyz sovereignty" and will be allowed to boost its troop levels in Kyrgyzstan for a period of 49 years. The site of the base has not been chosen, but Russia has signaled interest in deploying along the Uzbek-Kyrgyz border, in the restive Ferghana Valley. The base would be used to house a new Rapid Reaction Force created under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Uzbekistan, however, has fiercely opposed the move - and a further expansion of the CSTO - which it views as a tool to expand Moscow's influence in the region. At a meeting of the CSTO last month, Uzbekistan (along with Belarus) blocked Russia's proposal to create the Rapid Reaction Force. Meanwhile, tensions over water and border security between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have run high in recent years. In a biting statement signaling Uzbekistan's discomfort with Russian troops along its border, the Uzbek Foreign Ministry warned that Russia's deployment would "lead to the appearance of radical extremist forces" and "give impetus to the strengthening of militarization processes and initiate all kinds of nationalistic confrontations." (Eurasianet.org, August 3, 2009; Reuters, August 5, 2009)
PIPELINES AND NUKES IN TURKEY
Turkey and Russia have signed a landmark energy deal allowing Russia to build a natural gas pipeline through Turkish waters in the Black Sea. The South Stream pipeline has been promoted by Russia as an alternative to the Nabucco pipeline, which is designed to pump non-Russian gas to from the Caspian Sea to Europe. If completed, South Stream could undermine the economic justification for Nabucco and maintain Russia's near-monopoly on the European gas market. Turkey, meanwhile, has positioned itself as a critical transit point in the "Great Game" over Caspian energy and won several concessions from Russia for granting Moscow access to the waters in its exclusive economic zone. Among the top of those concessions was Russia's decision to reopen talks on building nuclear power reactors in Turkey. (New York Times, August 6, 2009)
AN IRANIAN HAND IN YEMEN'S UNREST?
Yemen has spoken out against Iranian interference in its long-standing battle with Houthist rebels in the country's north. The Houthists, followers of the cleric Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, comprise the Shi'ite minority of the Zaydi branch in what is a predominantly Sunni country. They have been sporadically engaging the government in an insurgent campaign since 2004. Now Yemen is worried that Iran is providing the Houthists with material and political support. Hasah Ahmad al-Lawzi, Yemen's information minister, pointed to "foreign parties that are giving financial and political support to elements of rebellion and destruction in Saada." He also noted, in a thinly-veiled jab at Iran, that "religious authorities" were supporting "acts of terrorism and destruction." The claim comes amid a sustained government offensive against the Houthists comprising air strikes, tanks and artillery. (Reuters, August 18, 2009)