NEW PROLIFERATION SANCTIONS BEGIN TO BITE
On August 14th, the United Arab Emirates seized a ship off its waters carrying North Korean weapons, detonators, and explosives bound for Iran. The Australian-registered, Bahaman-flagged vessel was detained under a new set of sanctions imposed on North Korea by the UN in June (pursuant to Security Council resolution 1874) following its second underground nuclear weapons test, carried out in May. This was the first time a ship had actually been detained under the new sanctions, although India had “intercepted” a North Korean ship suspected of carrying nuclear supplies in August, and the USS John McCain trailed a North Korean cargo ship destined for Burma in June before it reversed course. (Christian Science Monitor, August 31, 2009)
[Editor’s Note: The UAE’s move is almost certain to anger Iran, which itself violated the sanctions by accepting/importing an arms shipment from North Korea. The UAE hosts a large Iranian expatriate community and it is believed Iran has extensive financial interests in the UAE. Iran has yet to offer an explanation for its violation.]
A SHAKE UP IN IRAQI POLITICS
With the announcement of a powerful new alliance of Shi’ite religious parties, Iraqi politics are undergoing a fundamental re-shuffling ahead of national elections scheduled for January. The new Shi’ite bloc, known as the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), will include several parties from the Shi’ite-led party list (the United Iraqi Alliance) that swept elections in 2005, but is most notable for who it excludes in its second iteration: Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. The new bloc - comprising the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), the largest party in the alliance; the Basra-based Fadhila Party; the movement of radical Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr; a pro-Iranian splinter from Maliki’s Dawa party led by former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jafari; Ahmed Chalabi; and two small Sunni and Turkmen parties - invited the Prime Minister to join their list but Maliki declined when the bloc refused to guarantee him another nomination to the nation’s highest post. Instead, Maliki, fresh off impressive victories in local elections this past January, has formed a new political wing, the State of Law, which is considering an alliance with Sunnis, secularists, and nationalists for the upcoming poll, although the INA insists their invitation to the Prime Minister remains open. (Washington Post, August 25, 2009)
THE IMU: ALIVE AND KICKING?
A string of terrorist attacks in the Central Asian nation of Uzbekistan this summer have been pinned on a cell of the banned Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan after Uzbek authorities killed three of its members in a shootout on August 29th. One of the men killed, Shaukat Makhmudov, had been wanted by the government since he was implicated in a series of bombings in the capital in 1999 that killed 16 people. Uzbek prosecutors now say that Makhmudov and his cell were responsible for three murder/assassinations that took place over the course of the summer. However, some analysts are questioning the veracity of Tashkent’s claims, with one telling eurasianet.org that “Shootouts between bandits and law enforcement agents are not a typical thing in Tashkent. There is the belief that the state is trying to create the illusion of terrorist threat.” (eurasianet.org, September 9, 2009)
IN RIYADH, INTROSPECTION...
The assassination attempt on Saudi Arabia’s chief of counterterrorism operations, Prince Mohammed bin Naif, by an al-Qaeda suicide bomber last month has sparked calls within the Kingdom to intensify the fight against Islamist extremism and change the focus from fighting “terrorism” to fighting “fanaticism.” The prominent Saudi newspaper al Watan has carried an article by Mishari al Thaidi, a former militant and Saudi expert on Islamic movements, arguing for a fundamental change in approach. Jamal Khashoggi, al Watan’s editor and another expert on Islamist movements, argues that Saudis must stop thinking of al-Qaeda simply as “sinful” Muslims gone astray and begin recognizing them as Khawarij, a cult-like group of Muslim fanatics that assassinated the fourth Caliph in the seventh century. An unnamed Saudi analyst, meanwhile, told Agence France Presse that “People who promote [fundamentalist] thoughts are not held accountable unless they start to form a danger to the government,” while another insists Saudi Arabia needs “to restructure Islamic teaching at schools.” (Abu Dhabi The National, August 31, 2009)
...AND NEW DANGERS
Saudi Arabia may need a boost to its counterterrorism efforts, given recent revelations that neighboring Yemen is increasingly being used as a launching pad by al-Qaeda for regional terror attacks. After a series of bombings in the kingdom in 2003, Saudi Arabia initiated a fierce crackdown on al-Qaeda and its affiliates within the country, arresting and incarcerating hundreds of suspected extremists. The environment in Saudi Arabia has become much tougher for al-Qaeda to operate and the organization seems to have responded by moving operations south across the border into Yemen, where the government is weak and the underground thrives. Saudi writer Faress bin Hezam stresses that “the Yemeni government has limited capabilities to combat Al-Qaeda,” noting that Yemen’s security forces, which are already engaged in a fierce struggle against separatist rebels, lack the experience of their Saudi counterparts. (Agence France Presse, September 2, 2009)