WAZIRISTAN WON BUT NO MORE, FOR NOW
Begun in October, Pakistan’s offensive into South Waziristan to kill, capture, or root out militants from the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) has “deeply impressed” U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates. The operation, long urged by the U.S. and launched by the Pakistani military after months of TTP terrorist attacks on Pakistani civilian and military targets, was hailed by Secretary Gates on a visit to Islamabad as a military “success.” However, the chief spokesman for the Pakistani army ruled out any new military operations in the near future, citing a timeframe of “six months to a year” before the military could consolidate its gains and consider a new offensive. Gates appeared receptive: “We have to do this in a way that is comfortable for [the Pakistanis], and at a pace that they can accommodate and is tolerable for them.” (Washington Examiner January 22, 2010)
[Editor’s note: Despite Gates’ conciliatory tone, U.S. officials and regional experts have stressed that Pakistani military must not stop its campaign in South Waziristan while Afghan Taliban, TTP and al Qaeda leaders enjoy safe havens in other parts of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Baluchistan. Even Gates hinted at such urgency in an editorial for Pakistan’s The News International: “Maintaining a distinction between some violent extremists groups and others is counterproductive. Only by pressuring all of these groups on both sides of the border will [both countries] be able to rid themselves of this scourge for good.” The South Waziristan operation, while successful, was a low-casualty affair, with few Taliban leaders killed or captured. Many are suspected to have fled to North Waziristan, where several Taliban warlords focused attacking U.S. and Afghan targets across the border hold sway. Pakistan has been reluctant to confront these groups as they are not viewed as posing a threat to the Pakistani state.]
INDIA TRIPLES ITS ORDER FOR RUSSIAN MIGS…
India’s Cabinet Committee on Security has approved a massive new arms deal with Russia, following the settlement of a long-running dispute over the refitting and sale to India of the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov. Under the new deal India will receive 29 new MiG-29Ks to complement the order of 16 embedded in the Gorshkov contract. The new MiGs will operate off of the Gorshkov (Rechristened INS Vikramaditya) and from the indigenous carrier India hopes to finish building by 2014-2015. In total the 45 MiG-29Ks will run about $1.7 billion. Among other notable and ongoing Indian mega-deals with Russia: 230 Sukhoi-30MKI fighters, six Talwar-class stealth frigates, and 657 T-90S battle tanks. (Times of India January 18, 2010)
… AND URGES DOMESTIC FIRMS TO ENTER ARMS MARKET
Even as India solidifies its defense relationship with Russia it is implementing a new plan designed to breathe new life into its domestic defense industry. The Congress-led government in New Delhi is working to overturn an unusual policy in which private domestic firms are forbidden from bidding on big government defense projects. India’s private sector currently holds about 20% of the defense industry there, but until now was only allowed to bid on non-combat equipment. New Delhi hopes the move will encourage private Indian firms such as Tata Motors and Mahindra and Mahindra to enter the lucrative defense market and reduce India’s reliance on defense imports. (Reuters October 30, 2009)
PAKISTAN GETS ITS DRONES [Editor’s note: No weapon has been more effective at targeting and killing leaders of the Taliban and al Qaeda than the unmanned aerial drone. Operated by the CIA and flown out of bases in Pakistan (there is a separate program run by the U.S. military in Afghanistan), Predator drones have been used with increasing frequency over the past 18 months (70 attacks, more than the previous 7 years combined, including a furious barrage in recent weeks after a suicide bombing killed 7 CIA agents in Afghanistan). The drone strikes are publicly denounced but privately supported by Islamabad.]
After over a year of requests, and rejections, Pakistan will soon be getting unmanned aerial drones of its own. During his January trip to Islamabad, Defense Secretary Robert Gates disclosed the plan and defense officials confirmed that the U.S. planned to sell Pakistan a dozen unarmed “Shadow drones,” smaller than the U.S.-favored Reaper drones and designed for intelligence and reconnaissance. The Shadow, launched from a trailer, can fly at a speed of 70mph and has a wingspan of 14 feet. (New York Times January 21, 2010)