QDR SUPPORTS EXPANDED ROLE FOR INDIA
It has become almost routine for the Pentagon’s benchmark Quadrennial Defense Review to take an apprehensive and cautionary tone with regards to China’s rising military capabilities. But in the latest iteration of the study, released publicly in early February, India was featured prominently as well, albeit in a far different context. The report expected India’s role in global affairs to rise in conjunction with its rising economic power, cultural reach and political influence. “This growing influence, combined with democratic values it shares with the United States, an open political system, and a commitment to global stability, will present many opportunities for cooperation,” the QDR emphasized. In a notable endorsement of India’s strategic rise, the QDR went on to say “India will contribute to Asia as a net provider of security in the Indian Ocean and beyond.” (U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review February 2010)
CHINA'S INFLUENCE GROWS IN NEPAL AT TIBETANS EXPENSE
In recent months, the strengthening bonds between China and Nepal have raised more than a few eyebrows in nearby New Delhi. However, it is in Tibet where the impact of this new friendship is likely to be most felt. That is because China is using new influence in Kathmandu to press the Nepalese government to close the well-worn Himalayan passages Tibetans have used to cross into Nepal for centuries. China’s interest in Nepal surged in 2008 after protests erupted in Tibet in March of that year. Beijing suppressed those uprisings and enforced a media blackout in the restive region, but Tibetans protesting in Nepal garnered international attention and sympathy. From that point on, Beijing has sought to befriend the government in Kathmandu; a government that in recent years has distanced itself from its traditional patrons in India and has been struck with paralysis after the incorporation of a Maoist insurgency into its political process.
China’s outreach is already paying dividends. Before 2008, the office of the Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of the Tibetans, estimated that some 2,500 to 3,000 Tibetans crossed into Nepal annually. That number was reduced to just 600 in 2009, partly because Nepal is now policing isolated crossing points. These successes are causing consternation in India. According to Sridhar Khatri, executive director of the South Asia Center for Policy Studies in Kathmandu, “India has always been concerned about what access China might have in Nepal. India has always considered South Asia to be its backyard, like a Monroe Doctrine.” (New York Times, February 18, 2010)
[Editor’s note: Chinese analyst Dai Bing, speaking from an English language, pro- government website, China.org.cn, recently wrote that “The struggle between pro-India and pro-China forces in Nepal is at a critical stage and China needs to pay more attention to its interests there.” Bing also warned that India was “stepping up its military penetration” of other regional countries such as Bhutan, Myanmar, and the Maldives, and initiating closer cooperation with Russia and the U.S.]
INDIA LAUNCHES MAJOR OFFENSIVE AGAINST MAOISTS
India has launched a massive, nationwide operation against Maoist or “Naxalite” insurgents that have been waging war against the state for over 20 years. Dubbed “Operation Green Hunt,” the offensive is designed to target the ten- to twenty thousand-strong Maoists in their forest hideouts, mostly along the “red corridor” through the center and east of the subcontinent, although Maoists are active in 20 of India’s 28 states. For Operation Green Hunt, thousands of federal security forces are being deployed to Maoist jungle strongholds in West Bengal, Orissa, and Jharkhand, some of the hardest hit states.
In response, Maoist leaders have offered a 72-day ceasefire and even named three “intellectuals” to mediate talks with the government. However, New Delhi has refused the offer unless the Maoists drop preconditions and renounce violence. A top Maoist leader, Koteswar Rao, has since threatened to overthrow the Indian government and begin attacking Indian cities. 2,500 civilians, 800 security personnel and 1,000 Maoists have been killed in fighting since 2004 (6,000 total since the insurgency began) and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has deemed the insurgency India’s largest domestic security threat. Twelve of the 37 members of the Maoist central committee are currently in custody. (Global Post, March 9, 2010; BusinessWeek, March 7, 2010; Oneindia.com, March 7, 2010)
EMBRACING THE DRONE IN AFGHANISTAN
The use of unmanned aerial drones by the CIA to target high-level al-Qaeda and Taliban figures in Pakistan has sparked contentious debates about their effectiveness and legality both at home and abroad. However, under the radar, the parallel drone program run by the military in Afghanistan has expanded just as rapidly. The number of Predator drones now flown by the Air Force (20) is double what it was a year ago and although the drones have been used primarily for surveillance operations, they are increasingly being seen by the military as an efficient and lethal offensive weapon.
According to the New York Times, the “Predators and Reapers set off 219 missiles and bombs in Afghanistan in 2009 and 31 more so far this year. That compared with 183 in Afghanistan in 2008 and 74 in 2007.” Moreover, as Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, focuses on population protection there, the UN “recorded no civilian deaths from drone strikes in Afghanistan last year.” The Predator (which fires Hellfire missiles) and the larger, faster Reaper drones (which can carry 500-lb bombs) can hover for 20 hours and now supply more than 400 hours of video a day to pilots back in the U.S. and commanders on the ground via laptop. Some Reapers will soon be outfitted with 10 cameras, instead of one, and as many as 30 by next year. (New York Times, February 19, 2010)