WIKILEAKS SHINE LIGHT ON U.S.-PAK RELATIONSHIP
Among the thousands of previously undisclosed U.S. State Department cables revealed by the whistleblower site WikiLeaks are several revealing missives from the U.S. mission in Islamabad. The newsworthy cables originate from then-U.S. ambassador to Pakistan, Anne Patterson. Dozens of news reports and statements from officials over the past year make clear the highest levels of the U.S. government believe Pakistan is not doing enough to combat the Taliban, al Qaeda and affiliated militant organizations operating from Pakistan. However, the cables show a previously-undisclosed skepticism about Pakistan’s intentions (or lack thereof) to combat militancy and of the Obama administration’s efforts to cajole Pakistan into action through billions of dollars in development aid.
“A grand bargain that promises development or military assistance in exchange for severing ties will be insufficient to wean Pakistan from policies that reflect accurately its most deep-seated fears,” writes Patterson, in a cable from 2009. “Money alone will not solve the problem of Al Qaeda or the Taliban operating in Pakistan.” An additional cable by Peter Lavoy, U.S. national intelligence officer for South Asia, argues that Islamabad hopes to keep militant groups occupied with attacking external forces (i.e. U.S. troops, India, and the Afghan government) so that they don’t turn their guns inward on Pakistan. “Urging militant groups to be outwardly focused is perceived by Pakistani officials as a method to safeguard internal security.” (Los Angeles Times December 2, 2010)
INDIA’S SUB FLEET SHOWING ITS AGE
On December 9, India retired the last of its Foxtrot-class submarines, the INS Vagli, highlighting a weakness in the Indian Navy at a time it is seeking to boost its geopolitical presence in the Indian Ocean and fight off challenges for regional influence from China. Retiring the nearly 40-year-old submarine brings India’s fleet to just 14 aging subs, with only eight or nine operational at any given time. India is building six Scorpene submarines at its massive Mazagon Docks shipyard which should be operational by 2020, but with retirements would leave India’s sub fleet at less than ten in 2022 when strategic planning calls for 18 at that time. (Times of India December 9, 2010)
[Editor’s note: China is believed to have roughly thirty modern and advanced subs and something in the order of 60-70 submarines in total.]
AFGHAN ARMY WANTS MORE ARMS FROM U.S.
The U.S. is reconsidering requests from the Afghan government for heavy weapons and artillery that it has long denied. The 150,000-man Afghan Army currently has no tanks and no armored personnel carriers (APCs), in addition to a small air force of 40 Russian helicopters and a dozen transport and training planes. Previous requests were “brushed off as impracticable and unsuitable to the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy,” but the U.S.-led coalition now looks ready to supply the Afghan Army at least with light APCs, air surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities next year. However, Washington is unlikely to move on pleas for fighter jets and battle tanks anytime soon, as the Afghan Army is “mostly illiterate and lacks the skills to operate and maintain modern weapons systems.” Others question the utility of heavy conventional weapons, noting the ineffectiveness of the Soviet Army of the mujahideen. One senior coalition official told the Wall Street Journal “You can see equipment graveyards all over the country where this stuff is just rusting... Some of this appetite [for heavy weaponry] is a little irritating.” (Wall Street Journal December 9, 2010)
PENTAGON TO OPEN NEW FACILITY IN QUETTA
In a report to Congress, the Pentagon has outlined sensitive plans to build a new facility in the Pakistani city of Quetta to house U.S. military officials. According to a Pentagon statement, “Pakistan Army General Headquarters recently approved a U.S. Office of Defense Representative (ODR) and Coalition presence at the Pakistan military’s 12 Corps HQ in Quetta.” The Pentagon already has a limited presence in Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, and Peshawar, but Islamabad has been extremely hesitant about allowing a greater military and intelligence presence inside Pakistan. In November, the Pakistani establishment denied U.S. requests to expand their campaign to target militants with unmanned aerial drones to new areas, including Quetta and other parts of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Quetta, the capital of the Pakistani province of Baluchistan, is widely believed to be the home base of the Afghan Taliban’s leadership. (Foreign Policy December 2, 2010)