CHINESE DRONES, MILITARY BUILDUP WORRY INDIA
A three-day visit to India by Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao in late December produced several photo opportunities, and tens of billions in business deals, but little tangible progress on the lingering disputes that have soured the bilateral relationship in recent years. In fact, at least one new point of contention emerged, as a former Indian air force chief Shahindra Tyagi used the visit to warn about Chinese spy drones crossing into Indian territory. Tyagi also cautioned about the modernization of China’s armed forces, stating “India needs to be prepared. Keep your gunpowder ready. China is getting aggressive; India will have to cope with the entire spectrum of threat.”
Defense Minister AK Antony has confirmed that roughly 30 violations of airspace have been recorded in the past three years, some of those by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). China’s drone technology has advanced rapidly in recent years, with the People’s Liberation Army publicly displaying at least two different drones in 2009 and Chinese companies presenting twenty-five models at a Chinese air show in November. Beijing is also providing assistance to Pakistan to develop its own armed UAVs. Current air force chief PV Naik admitted: “They [China] have a lead over us [but]… With the capabilities that we have built up and are in the process of building, a repeat of [the 1962 Sino-Indian war] can never happen.” (Financial Times December 16, 2010)
AF-PAK BORDER AGREEMENT TAKES EFFECT
On January 1, a landmark agreement between Pakistan and Afghanistan came into effect allowing Afghan goods to be shipped to India through Pakistan. Secured by tracking devices, Afghan cargo trucks with sealed containers can now enter Pakistan and travel on to Pakistani ports or to the Wagah border crossing on the Indo-Pakistani border in the Punjab. From there cargo is loaded onto Indian trucks to be carried to their final destination. The agreement, which also includes a deal on customs issues, is a boon to Afghanistan’s struggling economy, as it will for the first time Afghan companies can market fruit, carpet, marble, and other Afghan staples directly in India. No agreement has yet been reached on reverse trade, and Indian exports to Afghanistan will not be allowed to transit Pakistan through Wagah, although the door was left open to discuss the issue “at an appropriate time in the future.” (Express Tribune January 1, 2011)
UNMANNED DRONES TARGET TALIBAN IN KHYBER
President Obama has dramatically escalated a CIA-run campaign to target Islamist militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas with unmanned aerial drones. After launching only nine drone strikes from 2004-2007, President Bush authorized some 34 in 2008. The following year, President Obama’s first in office, the U.S. launched 53 drone strikes in Pakistan and in 2010 that number more than doubled, to 118. Over 100 of 118 strikes in 2010 targeted militants in North Waziristan, a major hub of militant activity. But towards the end of the year, CIA drones began striking in the Khyber region with increasing frequency. Four separate strikes in two days in December killed 54 suspected terrorists. Since a Pakistani offensive into South Waziristan in 2009, Khyber province, which borders Afghanistan to the West and the regional Pakistani capital of Peshawar to the east, has become a base for several militant factions. It also hosts a crucial border crossing into Afghanistan, through which much of the Afghan-bound supplies for U.S. and coalition forces must pass. (Long War Journal December 17, 2010)
ASSASSINATIONS SPIKE WITH DRONE STRIKES IN FATA
Several U.S. officials have credited CIA-operated drone strikes with killing dozens of high value Taliban targets in recent years, as well as sowing paranoia and discord among the group’s rank and file. Taliban militants no longer attend large gatherings, travel alone, shun technology, and leaders must often switch safe houses several times a night to avoid being targeted. However, one unintended consequence of the rise in drone attacks has been a spike in assassinations in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas as the Taliban seeks to eliminate “spies” and intimidate the local population. In the militant-ridden North Waziristan alone, some 30 corpses have been found in the past few months, according to local residents, some of them showing obvious signs of torture. A Pakistani intelligence official told the Washington Post that 70 informants from Pakistan’s spy service, the ISI, have been assassinated since 2004. No less troubling, residents describe how the “traitor” label is being used as “a valuable tool for people seeking revenge for land disputes and other personal enmities.” (Washington Post December 24, 2010)