FLAWED DEFENSE POLICY HAMPERS INDIA MIL MODERNIZATION
As India embarks on a massive, 10 year military modernization program, The Wall St. Journal has examined some of the serious flaws in the country’s defense policy. One of the biggest problems identified is India’s obsession with “indigenous” production. On one hand, the headline indigenous arms programs initiated by the Indian military – namely the Tejas light combat aircraft and the Arjun battle tank – have suffered from sub-par capabilities, decades-long delays, and dramatic cost overruns. (India has been more successful developing cruise and ballistic missiles). The Tejas program, for instance, was launched in 1969; the aircraft is set to enter Indian service this year. Moreover, despite decades of New Delhi’s best efforts, foreign material still accounts for 70% of India’s military equipment.
In an effort to address this, in 2001 India began to allow foreign firms to invest in the defense sector, but set an investment cap of 26%. In 2005, New Delhi introduced the concept of offsets, whereby anyone wishing to sell India defense equipment would have to invest a percentage of the sale price back into the Indian defense sector. However, in the decade since the 26% cap was established, India has invited a paltry $150,000 in Foreign Direct Investment in the defense industry. The cap has proven too low and the offset restriction too onerous. In its Defense Procurement Policy 2011, India has attempted to address this problem by expanding the offset categories to include civil aerospace, internal security, and training, while the cabinet in New Delhi is considering demands by the defense industry and private sector to raise the investment cap to 49% or higher. The Ministry of Defense is opposed. (Times of India February 2, 2011; Wall St. Journal January 17, 2011)
PAK ATTACKS DOWN 20% BUT OTHER DATA MIXED
The number of militant attacks in Pakistan dropped considerably in 2010, albeit from a violent peak in 2009, when overall attacks surged to 2,586. Total militant attacks were down 20% year on year, with suicide attacks down 22%, from 87 to 68. However, the statistics, released by the Pak Institute for Peace Studies, still portray an incredibly unstable and violent security situation in Pakistan. For example, despite the drop in volume of attacks, the number of Pakistanis killed in attacks was almost the same, falling only slightly from 3,021 to 2,913. Moreover, attacks in Pakistan’s two largest cities more than tripled, from 24 to 93 attacks in Karachi and from 11 to 44 attacks in Lahore. (The Washington Times January 16, 2011)
U.S. DROPS SANCTIONS ON INDIAN DEFENSE FIRMS
In what could be a major boon to the U.S.-India defense relationship, the Obama administration, following through on a pledge the president made during his trip to New Delhi in November, 2010, has removed the subsidiaries of India’s two massive science and defense research institutions from an export control list. Nine companies under the umbrella of the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) and Defense Development Research Organization (DRDO) were removed from the U.S. government’s “Entities List” in January, including Bharat Dynamics, the Missile Research and Development Complex, the Solid State Physics Laboratory, the Liquid Propulsion Systems Center, and others. The administrative move removes India from a restricted category of countries in the Export Administration Regulations and places it on par with signatories of the Missile Technology Control Regime, which the Obama administration is currently trying to get India admitted to. Until now, the U.S. government and private sector companies have been banned from selling ISRO and DRDO some advanced technology and jointly collaborating on other high-tech projects. (Press Trust of India January 25, 2011)
PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR BONANZA
At least one country is raising loud objections to Washington’s efforts to bring India into the nuclear and nonproliferation mainstream: India’s archrival, Pakistan. Islamabad has reacted sharply to America’s efforts to gain India membership to the Missile Technology Control Regime and three other international nonproliferation bodies, the Nuclear Suppliers Group, Australian Group (chemical and biological weapons), and Wassenar Arrangements (conventional and dual use weapons). Zamir Akram, Pakistan’s ambassador to the UN, has warned that “these measures shall further destabilize security in South Asia” and that “Pakistan will be forced to ensure the credibility of its (nuclear) deterrence” as a result.
[Editor’s note: The Washington Post recently reported that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons production has surged in the past 3-4 years, to where it has eclipsed India’s arsenal and brought its total nuclear weapons stockpile to somewhere near 100. Other independent analysis put the number as high as 110. Moreover, China recently announced plans to build 2 new nuclear reactors at Pakistan’s Chashma complex, in violation of its commitments to the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which bans countries from selling nuclear equipment to non-signatories of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. New reports in February also suggest Pakistan has begun work on a fourth plutonium-producing nuclear reactor at the Khusab nuclear complex. Finally, out of a group of 65 countries, Pakistan continues to be the lone holdout blocking the launch of talks on a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty at the United Nations. The treaty requires universal consensus.] (Voice of America January 31, 2011; Washington Post February 9, 2011; Reuters January 25, 2011)